Interesting indeed, although I don't know what you mean by "interesting things".
I just mean an area where a trade should set up. ES for example today rushed up after a gap down open and turns 1 tick from the previous day low, a key level. But on its own, this isn't exactly enough to take a short, but it certainly was trade that was good for at least 10 points to the opening low. Trouble for me is that VWAP slices right through the middle of this move. Anytime price slices through VWAP a few times, it has me thinking its just gonna grind all day, so that proved to be right.
But I guess just my point goes back to your original questions or comment about forward looking vs back looking. If looking back, its easy to say that price turned 1t from the PDL, but today, VWAP didn't work for me the same way as it would on other days. So its easy when looking back to think how easy this was because I can account for 3 or 4 solid moves that make sense, but this would be forgetting about the 10 other setups that would have failed.
I wasn't really talking about one's trade setup or what one uses for that setup, but more about the relationship between the past and future price actions.
That said, even though I agree a lot of things we do are subjective, a clear picture do emerge (well, at least, in hindsight). That tells me that not everything is subjective.
Sure, none of it is subjective, but how much of it works even 75% of the time? A clear picture only emerges because 80% of what you might be looking at in real time is now gone, and the only thing left is what happened.
I think its exactly like survivorship bias. We can think how stupid we were to not invest in Google or Tesla or Facebook because of these incredible gains, but what he don't realize is that at the time, there were 10x the number of companies with a bright future that each could have also done amazing things but didn't. Now they are no longer around and we don't even consider them, but in the moment, it was probably quite difficult to assume that Amazon, which was only selling books, would be the one to make it. Heck, even now, if you consider they don't really make money outside of AWS, its pretty amazing to consider they are still making it.
