ES Journal - 2023/2024

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schizo said:
We've only turned the corner (eg. the first ever HIGHER LOW since early 2022) and the space is already crowded with insane enthusiasm. Just imagine what it would be like if we were to go back up to ATH. I personally have never been a big fan of "irrational exuberance". Seen it back in the heyday of Nasdaq bubble, again in the subprime housing bubble, and during the Covid FOMO. It's always the same story with same crap.
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Could be. Keep in mind that the COVID rally was fueled by unprecedented money printing, zero rate policy and helicopter money. Last year we started seeing the aftermath of that. And now, TINA is no longer the case. Money is no longer free and you can actually get interest on your money.

Inflation seems to still be a problem. Who cares about Norway here, but yesterday food prices were hiked another 10 % across the board among all the major food chains here. And that's after big increases last year. Let's not forget the war in Europe, either.

In summary, now that you can get interest elsewhere, money is no longer free and people have less money to pile into the market, that's a negative for the stock market.

Probably a lot is already priced in the market, but I'm just skeptical towards any sustained rally in 2023 and certainly no ATHs. I may easily be wrong and I'm no expert on macro politics. Just a degenerate day trader who takes a piece up or down whenever I can get it. :)

Buy1Sell2 said:
The issue that I see with your analysis is that those times you mentioned last year happened in a clear downtrend and right now we are in a clear uptrend.
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Maybe. But if we consider 2022 - every market top was preceded by strength and optimism.

Buy1Sell2 said:
In my view, the bear market is now over. The IHS on monthly chart shows me that. This turned out to be a big one but not The Big One.
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Could be.

This relates a bit to what was discussed yesterday in this journal, i.e., being able to switch views and don't cling for too long to the original hypothesis when it was proven wrong.

I'm sure there's many who still are expecting a market crash and massive carnage this year. For them, all they can see here is a bear market rally and a bull trap. Every evidence to the contrary is ignored.
 
With January closing positive, we have more data suggesting the likelihood of 2023 being an up year, which when added to all of the longer term cycles and the angry, confused bears, I just have to keep reminding myself of how to be positioned this year until the data suggests otherwise.
 
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