ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Buy1Sell2]

My God, it's happening again. One big swing up and all everyone is thinking is how much higher... Greed and fear. Nothing new on Wall Street, eh?

If we look at the last 16 FOMC days through 2022/2021 and consider only the biggies to the upside similar to today - there were actually a few big ones to the down side the following day.

Point being that just because the market rallied hard today that's not proof to me that this will have legs. And if today was a game changer - why did we close only 1.08 % up?

This is just looking at price history of course. I've no idea what Powell even said today. Don't want to know either.

For example last June - closing down - 3.21 % on the following day:

View attachment 305310


Oh. Last May as well. Closing down 3.54 % the following day:

View attachment 305309

The issue that I see with your analysis is that those times you mentioned last year happened in a clear downtrend and right now we are in a clear uptrend.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

In my view, the bear market is now over. The IHS on monthly chart shows me that. This turned out to be a big one but not The Big One.

 

[formikatrading]

The high yield bond traders sure are. And housing (ITB ETF) is moving back up nicely.

Ahhh... I don't think it's quite over just yet. Look at the 2's and 10's today. The bond traders aren't buying it. Not that this run won't continue for a few days, but you'll get your "set it and forget it" cheaper at some point I think.
If Apple comes in strong tomorrow and the markets take off again like a bat out of hell, out of the gate Friday... short it.

 

[formikatrading]

"If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it probably isn't a chicken." - Peter Borish

In my view, the bear market is now over. The IHS on monthly chart shows me that. This turned out to be a big one but not The Big One.

 

[hipster ned]

This has to be the most strange post-FOMC. It was like this after CPI number came out last week as well. We just more or less sat there. Is this because the market is so saturated with friggin' algos? Is this the new norm going forward???

0 dte options…not your grandfathers market

 

[spectastic]

Dr. Burry deleted his twitter

 

[formikatrading]

Given enough time, Burry will probably be proven right in any opinion he has. However, I'm not sure he is even capable of understanding "the game."

Dr. Burry deleted his twitter

 

[schizo]

In my view, the bear market is now over. The IHS on monthly chart shows me that. This turned out to be a big one but not The Big One.

Not so fast. Even though we may continue to go up from here (as in 4400 ), I think it's premature to declare that bear market is behind us. I think we will see some serious turbulence after the tax day.

 

[newbie463]

Dr. Burry deleted his twitter

I guess he meant SELL PUTS!

 

[vanzandt]

In my view, the bear market is now over. The IHS on monthly chart shows me that. This turned out to be a big one but not The Big One.

A new Izzy bottom? Maybe.
Personally, I'm not convinced.
There's 2 bears out there, and one is getting poked pretty bad.

That's the one that's causes me to worry.
That said, markets climb walls of worry now don't they?
But that's economic worry. Hmmm.
I guess for now we let the good times roll.
"Happy days are here again"
All is well. Btfd.

Edit:
And just for the record.... I 1000% disagree.
Color me a tad bit scared of the "unknown unknowns".
I'll be completely honest, Russia's cyber capabilities scare me.
But whatever. Lets hope I'm wrong.