ES Journal - 2023/2024

[schizo]

Time to let 'time' do its thing. Like I said last Fall, even though a gallon of milk that cost $2.50 last year costs $4 now... if it stays at $4, the new inflation rate goes to zero. That applies across the board on everything.

In another word, STFU and just get used to it.

In the meantime, I think I'll just "set and forget" until we get up to 4400. No more dicking around.

 

[Laissez Faire]

My God, it's happening again. One big swing up and all everyone is thinking is how much higher... Greed and fear. Nothing new on Wall Street, eh?

If we look at the last 16 FOMC days through 2022/2021 and consider only the biggies to the upside similar to today - there were actually a few big ones to the down side the following day.

Point being that just because the market rallied hard today that's not proof to me that this will have legs. And if today was a game changer - why did we close only 1.08 % up?

This is just looking at price history of course. I've no idea what Powell even said today. Don't want to know either.

For example last June - closing down - 3.21 % on the following day:

Oh. Last May as well. Closing down 3.54 % the following day:

 

[formikatrading]

I hear ya. I'm back to flat again. Still think this is a new bull market but am managing risk. And I have no idea what Powell said either!

My God, it's happening again. One big swing up and all everyone is thinking is how much higher... Greed and fear. Nothing new on Wall Street, eh?

If we look at the last 16 FOMC days through 2022/2021 and consider only the biggies to the upside similar to today - there were actually a few big ones to the down side the following day.

Point being that just because the market rallied hard today that's not proof to me that this will have legs. And if today was a game changer - why did we close only 1.08 % up?

This is just looking at price history of course. I've no idea what Powell even said today. Don't want to know either.

For example last June - closing down - 3.21 % on the following day:

View attachment 305310


Oh. Last May as well. Closing down 3.54 % the following day:

View attachment 305309

 

[schizo]

Point being that just because the market rallied hard today that's not proof to me that this will have legs. And if today was a game changer - why did we close only 1.08 % up?

For example last June - closing down - 3.21 % on the following day:

I would say, don't bother looking at the charts for the time being. Right now, it's all about market psychology. Everyone is pretty much blind. All they want is for the market to go up. You're better off talking to a wall. They don't wanna hear your crap. End of the discussion. (I think I should attach an emoji, but I don't know which one. Sorry.)

 

[ElCubano]

I would say, don't bother looking at the charts for the time being. Right now, it's all about market psychology. Everyone is pretty much blind. All they want is for the market to go up. You're better off talking to a wall. They don't wanna hear your crap. End of the discussion. (I think I should attach an emoji, but I don't know which one. Sorry.)

trappin

 

[destriero]

And it was a smart move on his part too. Let the dust settle for a bit. Too many able bodied people not working. That will change, no reason to increase wages now, they've already come up, companies have raised their prices on goods and services while demand hasn't dropped.

Time to let 'time' do its thing. Like I said last Fall, even though a gallon of milk that cost $2.50 last year costs $4 now... if it stays at $4, the new inflation rate goes to zero. That applies across the board on everything.

time stamped (until open)

 

[Laissez Faire]

I would say, don't bother looking at the charts for the time being. Right now, it's all about market psychology. Everyone is pretty much blind. All they want is for the market to go up. You're better off talking to a wall. They don't wanna hear your crap. End of the discussion. (I think I should attach an emoji, but I don't know which one. Sorry.)

Could be.

Just a word of warning to everyone reading here. I have no idea what tomorrow brings, but what I learned was enough that I’m not taking any longs overnight with wide stops.

 

[schizo]

Just a word of warning to everyone reading here. I have no idea what tomorrow brings, but what I learned was enough that I’m not taking any longs overnight with wide stops.

We've only turned the corner (eg. the first ever HIGHER LOW since early 2022) and the space is already crowded with insane enthusiasm. Just imagine what it would be like if we were to go back up to ATH. I personally have never been a big fan of "irrational exuberance". Seen it back in the heyday of Nasdaq bubble, again in the subprime housing bubble, and during the Covid FOMO. It's always the same story with same crap.

 

[vanzandt]

In another word, STFU and just get used to it.

In the meantime, I think I'll just "set and forget" until we get up to 4400. No more dicking around.

Ahhh... I don't think it's quite over just yet. Look at the 2's and 10's today. The bond traders aren't buying it. Not that this run won't continue for a few days, but you'll get your "set it and forget it" cheaper at some point I think.
If Apple comes in strong tomorrow and the markets take off again like a bat out of hell, out of the gate Friday... short it.

 

[schizo]

Look at the 2's and 10's today. The bond traders aren't buying it.

Uhmm, I don't follow. It moved pretty much in tandem with SPX. Care to elaborate?

(Futures)