ES Journal - 2023/2024

Laissez Faire said:
Well of course. That much is obvious, isn't it? That's the entire point, though.

Using a continuous chart - where do I draw the profile? Should I include today?

With my prior week in RTH that's not an issue.

Same chart. Different view.

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I just threw this together for an example...

1) ES RTH-only, 60 minute, with daily and weekly profiles.
2) zoom of this week

One interesting thing I see on the first view BTW, is that a break of the magic 3900 level has big air below down to 3830... Look at the daily profile for 1/6/... it's a big trough of nothing there, imo. This is how recognizing changes in framing is important. Just saying.

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formikatrading said:
Had few minutes to do some bigger picture analysis. As of now, still project we will be up for Q1, but February could be a little more challenging than January - not typically a really strong month from a seasonality perspective. I'm seeing a pattern on RTY weekly which typically suggests a down move (for this upcoming week) so keeping that in mind, along with how I read VIX. Expect bitcoin and long-term bonds to be up for Q1 as well so I don't see the market falling off a cliff. Just my 2cents

Related to this, the equal-weight S&P 500 has been leading this rally until recently (see the ratio line).

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I can only agree with that. February is historically not the best month. But if you look at it closely, the bad period is from mid-February to mid-March.
The first image shows the seasonality of the major indices for February and March.

The second image shows the backtest of the SPX from February 15 to March 15. It is clear that 2020 was a bad year because of Corona. But the other years are not good either.

major-indices-seasonality-feb60days.png
spx-backtest-feb15-mar15-seasonality-analysis.png


https://www.stockmarketonline.com/smo-seasonality-chart-comparison
 
Who is this new guy dropping some knowledge on us? ;)

Thanks for that info!

cosmo88 said:
I can only agree with that. February is historically not the best month. But if you look at it closely, the bad period is from mid-February to mid-March.
The first image shows the seasonality of the major indices for February and March.

The second image shows the backtest of the SPX from February 15 to March 15. It is clear that 2020 was a bad year because of Corona. But the other years are not good either.

View attachment 305214 View attachment 305215

https://www.stockmarketonline.com/smo-seasonality-chart-comparison
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