ES Journal - 2023/2024

Cessna06P said:
Oh they will pay.....in worthless dollars. When you create money out of nothing it is not really money. The rest of the world is just beginning to figure it out, when it becomes apparent to all it will be a tsunami. See "The Death Of Money".
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As one learned friend pointed out to me regarding our current inflation quagmire... "Everyone is missing what's really going on... It's not the cost of products going up... it's the value of our dollar going down."
 
Exactly.
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upload_2023-1-30_21-9-49.png
 
Cessna06P said:
Oh they will pay.....in worthless dollars. When you create money out of nothing it is not really money. The rest of the world is just beginning to figure it out, when it becomes apparent to all it will be a tsunami. See "The Death Of Money".
More...
Although that may be true, as long as it remains the reserve currency, there will always be demand for dollars. I don't think that will change any time soon.
 
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

“What brought it on?”

“Friends,” said Mike. “I had a lot of friends. False friends. Then I had creditors, too. Probably had more creditors than anybody in England.”
 
Laissez Faire said:
POC = point of control = the level with the highest volume transacted.

Other peaks on the profile could be considered high volume nodes.

Areas on the profile with little volume could be considered pockets or small gaps.

Generally, then, one would expect high volume nodes/areas to take more time to trade through and pockets where price can pop/drop through more easily. At least that's the theory as far as I understand it.

Three levels were clustered together today with the POC from last week, last week's mid point and also prior weekly highs.
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Two more concepts should be included... acceptance/rejection.

Acceptance can also cause a POC value to change. This can then be used as a criteria for continuations.

Rejection of POC and/or peak pricing is easily understood, and carries the possibility of a subsequent changing of POC value.

Changes in POC values should be noted as to the direction of the change... another criteria for ongoing analysis.

Acceptance/rejection also applies to pockets as you are calling them. To better understand that, just remember a pocket is surrounded by 2 peaks... acceptance/rejection is applicable 3x in these areas.

FWIW, I prefer the terms peaks and troughs. Troughs are more interesting imo.
But that's me.

Carry On!
 
tiddlywinks said:
Two more concepts should be included... acceptance/rejection.

Acceptance can also cause a POC value to change. This can then be used as a criteria for continuations.

Rejection of POC and/or peak pricing is easily understood, and carries the possibility of a subsequent changing of POC value.

Changes in POC values should be noted as to the direction of the change... another criteria for ongoing analysis.

Acceptance/rejection also applies to pockets as you are calling them. To better understand that, just remember a pocket is surrounded by 2 peaks... acceptance/rejection is applicable 3x in these areas.

FWIW, I prefer the terms peaks and troughs. Troughs are more interesting imo.
But that's me.

Carry On!
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Thanks for providing that additional information, Tiddly.

Curious. You find it have any value in your own trading?

Personally, I'm just playing around with it and and am still trialing it, I suppose. Mostly because it's an interesting concept that seems to make sense logically even if I have expressed some concerns earlier with regards to volume on index futures. It certainly gives another perspective than simply putting volume at the bottom of your chart.

I'm just cautious against reading too much into it. Yesterday's LOD was indeed last week's POC, but, it was also a round number (4030) and clustered around prior highs and last week's mid-point. So, it could have been random.

Just like when Fib guys point out a 61 % retrace and I can see that it lines up with some other level on my charts.

Another "problem" I've had is what lookback period to use when plotting it on continuous charts. Any solutions for that?

On the chart I posted above I simply plotted it on last week's entire RTH range. Easy peasy.
 
schizo said:
But that's kinda expected once you touch the trendline, which we did on Friday. And I'm guessing we will get another day of selloff tomorrow down to 3982.
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FWIW, I checked my statistical model based on yesterday's pattern and it agrees with a down bias for today (Tuesday). Also, there appears to be a negative bias towards the last trading day of January. So, everything seems to suggest lower going into FOMC.

Not sure how low we'll go, though. I'm guessing we'll see at least a test of 4K, though. Either pre-market or in RTH.
 
Look at those large 1-minute bars. 10 points back and forth here during the Open.

I'm betting 4084 or a move down to 4000, but it seems like a draw at this point. I've been humbled by the market this week not really getting a good or good enough read on the action.

This looks bullish at the moment, but it can easily be sold into.
 
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