ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Lots of hindsight winners here, so how about a hindsight loss? 
Just stopped out of a long here at 44 for a 11 point loss intraday.
I'm looking to re-enter long, but will wait a bit and see. I still think we're close to bottoming out intraday.
Just stopped out of a long here at 44 for a 11 point loss intraday.
I'm looking to re-enter long, but will wait a bit and see. I still think we're close to bottoming out intraday.
if you were so convinced of a bottom then why did you take the loss at the worst inflection point?
Just wondering, you walked through your setup today, you stated that you see the market going lower before hitting a day high towards the close. It would have made much more sense to wait for a long close to the inflection point in the 37-45 area with a stop below the 37 if you wanted to implement your trading plan.
Just wondering, you walked through your setup today, you stated that you see the market going lower before hitting a day high towards the close. It would have made much more sense to wait for a long close to the inflection point in the 37-45 area with a stop below the 37 if you wanted to implement your trading plan.
Lots of hindsight winners here, so how about a hindsight loss?
Just stopped out of a long here at 44 for a 11 point loss intraday.
I'm looking to re-enter long, but will wait a bit and see. I still think we're close to bottoming out intraday.
Probabilities, sir. Not certainties. I couldn't have known in advance that the market wouldn't drop even lower on that push down.
I like to use 10 points as my maximum stop and in this case I exceeded that by 1 point.
I've used larger stops in the past, but once in a while they do get hit. So, I try to keep losses contained and use on average 4-6 points as my stop. This seems particularly important in this market environment which can move a lot intraday. I find it's better to take a stop and re-enter.
I did get back in long at 48 shortly after, but momentum fizzled out, so maybe I'll stop out again. Only risking unrealized profits this time.
And stopped again. 1 tick of profit.
If we reverse higher today it should be around this time slot. If not, I was dead wrong today. Flat and watching for now.
If we reverse higher today it should be around this time slot. If not, I was dead wrong today. Flat and watching for now.
My point was not on that single trade, it actually pertained purely to probabilities. Where you entered did not make any sense given how you mapped out the probability distribution for today. You talked about how you see the market unfolding today, which I want to believe, was based on your opinion of the unfolding probability distribution across time (such as today's trading session). But you then did not follow your plan at all and instead went in long (most likely based purely on hope) willing to endure the correction below your entry. The point you entered at does not seem to provide any sort of edge nor inflection point at all. It was a coin toss, more or less.
ES trades at 4048 as we speak, it would make much more sense to place a long at current levels, given you still believe in your plan that you mapped out for today.
ES trades at 4048 as we speak, it would make much more sense to place a long at current levels, given you still believe in your plan that you mapped out for today.
And this is what I don't understand at all. This current level is the one you should be in position, not sitting out. Either you are right and entered at an inflection point with very little downside risk or you are wrong and stop out with much better risk/reward. Your prior trade just did not correlate at all with your earlier communicated setup and trading plan.
Some people like to wait for a bit of confirmation first.
I'm curious what you don't understand at all.
My view for today (based on my statistical model, not hope) have been clear as day, i.e., I'm looking for a new HOD by end of day.
My initial entry wasn't bad, but I decided to give it some room as a move lower and even a new LOD was within my prediction, although the most favourable scenario would be that the LOD already was in. So, not entering also meant a risk of missing the move.