ES Journal - 2023/2024

Buy1Sell2 said:
I'm not a big believer that the overnight futures action is very important generally for determining overall market direction. This is why I always say that cash rules futures. Here is the recent daily cash action and it still looks long to me--
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Anything can happen these days, so I would prefer to see where we open tomorrow. Be that as it may, we don't often see a 30 point drop straight from the get go in the ETH like we did today, especially during the Asian session. So I'm not sure what to make of it.

BTW I can't agree with you that cash rules futures. If we swoon overnight and the futures opens 100 points lower tomorrow, so will the cash market.
 
Overnight said:
Of COURSE the overnight session does not dictate the next RTH.
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As I stated in the previous reply, if the futures market tanks tonight and it opens 100 points lower tomorrow, so will the cash market. IT WILL DICTATE THE NEXT DAY'S RTH. :)
 
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schizo said:
As I stated in the previous reply, if the futures market tanks tonight and it opens 100 points lower tomorrow, so will the cash market. IT WILL DICTATE THE NEXT DAY'S RTH. :rolleyes:
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*SIGHS* I was not responding to YOU, I was responding to B1S2.

If the futures market tanks 100 points tonight, that does not mean tomorrow's RTH will settle down 100 points! OMFG!

There's a video for that. Stand by...

 
schizo said:
As I stated in the previous reply, if the futures market tanks tonight and it opens 100 points lower tomorrow, so will the cash market. IT WILL DICTATE THE NEXT DAY'S RTH. :)
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I don't think that's quite right though---Here is an example of where the overnight dropped like a rock yet the following day ended up moving in the direction of the overall trend. This is a daily futures chart. So, my view is that we could open 100 pts lower tomorrow, but the overall trend would remain up and we would recover all or most of that on the same day. It could happen the other way, but it's much less likely.
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Buy1Sell2 said:
I don't think that's quite right though---Here is an example of where the overnight dropped like a rock yet the following day ended up moving in the direction of the overall trend. So, my view is that we could open 100 pts lower tomorrow, but the overall trend would remain up and we would recover all or most of that on the same day. It could happen the other way, but it's much less likely.
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Exactly! OMG this is overnight futures trading 101! GAHHHHH!
 
Overnight said:
If the futures market tanks 100 points tonight, that does not mean tomorrow's RTH will settle down 100 points! OMFG!
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No, but it also won't likely to close in the green either. If you've traded through 2008-09, you would know how vicious these overnight sessions can get. Back then, when price nosedived in the overnight, it often continued throughout the next session.

What you and B1S2 is saying is more applicable in a bull market, and last time I checked, I was told we're still in a bear market.
 
vanzandt said:
See here's the thing... when the market is desperately searching for, fishing for, any excuse to spike up... it's a sure sign we trending down and lower lows are on the way

BUT... like anything else, take it as one person's observations, I mean I could be wrong. Either way, I thought I'd share as we head into earnings. As I pointed out last night MSFT will be the next excuse to spike up. Heaven forbid they sound negative, because if they do, we'll see a 2% drop tomorrow.
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I think you might get that after all. I ain't feeling too good about tomorrow (or rather today). I think they're gonna throw the baby out with the bathwater. If we break below yesterday low, oh man, it's gonna get ugly. In that case, I'm looking at 50-ish for the target (just don't quote me on it).
 
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