ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Nailed it...
IMV, there's a lot of stuff going on around this 4K level. I would be looking both for a breakout higher and a failure to do so in this area. And if we fail to go higher, who's to say we're going to sell-off? Could just as well be settling in a new range here for now.
Statistically, the odds of taking out Friday's Low this Monday (the 23rd) are very, very low. Odds favour consolidation at top of Friday's range or continuation higher. Let's see if that holds up and where to from there...
so up, down, or sideways next week. Got it
How do you reckon it's a free pass?
so up, down, or sideways next week. Got it
Not really.
I specifically said that for Monday I'm expecting continuation or consolidation and not a reversal.
I also specifically said that the 4K level is where I'll be monitoring for either continuation or a reversal.
Having too strong a bias or conviction either way is a sure way to get smoked in this market, so it's wiser than ever to map out various scenarios, but of course okay to have a main scenario to lean on.
What's your take, then?
I know i'm just busting your chops. I don't enter trades at nose bleed levels if we are talking about higher time frames, so I need to wait for some sort of consolidation or pullback. Once I see how it behaves, Ill make my decision. Prediction wise, i'm fully expecting it to either continue up or consolidate for a few days. Low news release weeks that had a bullish week preceeding it usually continue on in the trend. I dont have stats to back it up, its just been my observation through the years
I'm afraid I don't follow your reasoning based on that picture.
4400 is 10 % higher from Friday's Close.
Sure, it can happen, but I don't see how it's a "free pass".
From my POV, we can still see a failure around this 4K area for a new drop lower.
try connect the bodies, not the wicks.
Why?
open and close.
I don't follow. Post a chart.
Anyway, the point is when you're drawing a line, you should be able to line up as many dots as possible, at least 3 places. In my chart, 3 highs line up (where the arrows are drawn). It doesn't line up using the body, as you suggest.