ES Journal - 2023/2024

[Overnight]

Symposium.

Next meeting is Jan 31-Feb 1.

My prediction is that the CPI on Thursday is going to over-ride the diarrhea that comes out of Powell's mouth tomorrow.

And then at the end of the month, Powell will reverse it again, by indicating they will keep raising rates into oblivion, because he does not understand economic momo FLOW. He and the rest of FOMC are going to overshoot it, because they simply don't give a shit after they got caught with hands in cookie jar trading on the inside.

 

[schizo]

My prediction is that the CPI on Thursday is going to over-ride the diarrhea that comes out of Powell's mouth tomorrow.

And then at the end of the month, Powell will reverse it again, by indicating they will keep raising rates into oblivion, because he does not understand economic momo FLOW. He and the rest of FOMC are going to overshoot it, because they simply don't give a shit after they got caught with hands in cookie jar trading on the inside.

Oh, no more cheerleading for Powell huh?

Dude, they've always been like. What, like this is an eye-popping new discovery??

 

[Overnight]

Oh, no more cheerleading for Powell huh?

Dude, they've always been like. What, like this is an eye-popping new discovery??

I have never cheer-leaded for that jerk. He was a Trump Puppet when he was appointed, and is now finally finding his backbone.

What REALLY sucked was when in the latter half of last year, he said in a conference that pivot was on the table, but then reneged on it in his next FOMC QA. (I believe that was the October mess).

 

[schizo]

I have never cheer-leaded for that jerk. He was a Trump Puppet when he was appointed, and is now finally finding his backbone.

What REALLY sucked was when in the latter half of last year, he said in a conference that pivot was on the table, but then reneged on it in his next FOMC QA. (I believe that was the October mess).

Well, I'm glad you got that squared away. But reneging on his own words is one thing. Had he promptly raised interest rates and not dicked around until it was so obvious (even to little kids), he wouldn't have gotten us into this mess in the first place. Like you said "he does not understand economic momo". In fact, almost all of these economists are academicians. They can't get a good read on how the real economy works.

 

[schizo]

LONG 98.50

Stop 20 handle...come what may.

 

[Overnight]

LONG 98.50

Stop 20 handle...come what may.

Wow, looks like you caught the near-bottom tick on that one. Good luck, but keep your targets tight because this overnight action looks like shit.

 

[schizo]

Wow, looks like you caught the near-bottom tick on that one. Good luck, but keep your targets tight because this overnight action looks like shit.

Going back to Powell, I'm pretty certain he's going to backpedal from his Volckerian stance. We'll likely see 50 bps for the next meeting but 25 bps in March and onward. Even though he says he worries more about inflation than recession, I bet he's watching the stock market like a hawk. He will not let the market drop precipitously.

 

[Overnight]

...I bet he's watching the stock market like a hawk. He will not let the market drop precipitously.

He wants the market to fall, not rise. Less savings means less spending which means less inflation. All he cares about is inflation. Inflation inflation inflation. He and the FOMC gives ZERO shit about the stock market. Those were the old days, when they could trade stocks. Remember, now that they got busted, they simply don't CARE about your 401K. You could go bankrupt and homeless. They simply do not care about your well-being, because they can no-longer affect their own well-being with their decisions. Their free-ride is as over as ours is.

 

[schizo]

He wants the market to fall, not rise. Less savings means less spending which means less inflation. All he cares about is inflation. Inflation inflation inflation. He and the FOMC gives ZERO shit about the stock market. Those were the old days, when they could trade stocks. Remember, now that they got busted, they simply don't CARE about your 401K. You could go bankrupt and homeless. They simply do not care about your well-being, because they can no-longer affect their own well-being with their decisions. Their free-ride is as over as ours is.

But you forget one thing. All of these economists need a backup plan, call it an insurance if you will. Almost all of them get hired by Wall Street as consultants to do their dirty work. I don't think it's in Powell's best interest to throw mud at his future prospective bosses.

 

[Overnight]

But you forget one thing. All of these economists need a backup plan, call it an insurance if you will. Almost all of them get hired by Wall Street as consultants to do their dirty work. I don't think it's in Powell's best interest to throw mud at his future prospective bosses.

Pfffhhht. You think Powell is going to go to work for some big bank when he eventually loses his job as Fed chair? He'll just be the next Janet Yellen, unless Trump wins 2024 of course.

If Trump gets the presidency again, he is not gonna' renominate Powell again. He learned his lesson after following the stonk market this go around.