ES Journal - 2023/2024

Master Pu said:
I recall Jack Hershey on ET used to have an ‘always in’ trading strategy, no idea if it was profitable, some considered him to be a bit of a loser, I mostly recall his posts having been very lengthy, I quickly lose interest when quantum science hypotheses are included in ET posts.
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Jack Hershey was a very interesting fellow. I'm actually a bit of a fan and I think he had a lot of interesting things to say, but I only ever scratched the surface of his teachings. He made a few statements which clearly does not seem to be true, but I notice most of his followers would write that off as me not having done the work. So, it was refreshing talking to a Hershey follower earlier who agreed on my views.

I've never seen any definitive proof that anyone is profitable following Jack Hershey, though. But, that can be said about ET at large and not confined to JH.
 
zzz123 said:
If there is going to have a large-scale squeeze, it should happen right here right now, with a one to two-month timeframe, considering the fact there are too many bears trapped in the range plus some bears started to think about quitting, it will impress me if the bear can push back to the range,
I guess it will hang around the top area for a while, which will get the bear's attention, leading to a squeeze.
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Interesting.

How do you know for a fact that there's "too many" bears trapped?

The market's been range bound for a long time now giving ample opportunity to take an exit.

The market's not up more than ~ 140 points / 3.7 % from the last swing low.

Comparably, we're down ~ 223 points / 5,5 % from the last swing high.

So, is it not plausible to think there are bulls that are "trapped" as well?
 
Laissez Faire said:
Interesting.

How do you know for a fact that there are "too many" bears trapped?

The market's been range bound for a long time now giving ample opportunity to take an exit.

The market's not up more than ~ 140 points / 3.7 % from the last swing low.

Comparably, we're down ~ 223 points / 5,5 % from the last swing high.

So, is it not plausible to think there are bulls that are "trapped" as well?
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Good thinking sir, first I feel like trading is not science, all of us trying to find certainty under uncertain situations
we collect information, we form a market context, and we stick to it, that is what I feel about the market right now, if I am wrong, I will change my view very fast.
in my view, I make it very clear, what I am looking for, and what is going to happen, there is no ambiguity, and it will be easily spotted if I am wrong, and I will happily admit, and change accordingly
Best of all, it will be tested by the market every single day, I hope you judge my trading by the result and is that what all of us looking for
 
zzz123 said:
Good thinking sir, first I feel like trading is not science, all of us trying to find certainty under uncertain situations
we collect information, we form a market context, and we stick to it, that is what I feel about the market right now, if I am wrong, I will change my view very fast.
in my view, I make it very clear, what I am looking for, and what is going to happen, there is no ambiguity, and it will be easily spotted if I am wrong, and I will happily admit, and change accordingly
Best of all, it will be tested by the market every single day, I hope you judge my trading by the result and is that what all of us looking for
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Great.

I was just noticing your comment..."Considering the fact that there are too many bears trapped"...which seemed to suggest you actually knew this for certain. As such, I was wondering if there was a way you knew this for sure. From your answer I take it that this is just a speculative viewpoint/thesis.

Jason Shapiro in the latest Market Wizards book would use the COT report a lot and generally fade the market when speculators were "too short" or "too long".
 
Laissez Faire said:
Great.

I was just noticing your comment..." Considering the fact that there are too many bears trapped"...which seemed to suggest you actually knew this for certain. As such, I was wondering if there was a way you knew this for sure. From your answer I take it that this is just a speculative viewpoint/thesis.

Jason Shapiro in the latest Market Wizards book would use the COT report a lot and generally fade the market when speculators were "too short" or "too long".
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correct, no certainty in an uncertain world, but the result has only one, it will be interesting to see it happen in front of us
 
zzz123 said:
correct, no certainty in an uncertain world, but the result has only one, it will be interesting to see it happen in front of us
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Yes. Agreed. I've lost count of how many times I've been excited for the next trading week curious about how it plays out. It never seems to get old. Well, maybe some weeks are more exciting than others.

With the market stuck in a range lately and attempting a breakout at the end of this week it will be very interesting to see if we can get continuation higher or revert back into the range with a possible breakout lower.

Personally, I don't trade based on sentiment alone and try to keep it strictly technical, but I do recognize the fact that trapped traders can add fuel to the fire.

Regardless, this is my point of view below. I'm not predicting anything. Just using this for some big picture context.

Basically, I will be looking for continuation higher or a reversal back in range.

If, however, we should trade higher, it seems to me we're running into some serious resistance around that open gap at 4029,25. There's the 200-MA and a long term trend line in that area.

As for news/events coming up this week there's Powell speaking on Tuesday and the CPI on Thursday.

Allright. Enough posting for a while. Good luck all. :)

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Laissez Faire said:
It's an interesting question.

I would first like to ask what you consider a daily ideal quota? Is it a dollar figure, i.e., a % of your account? Or is it related to the metrics of the market, i.e., a certain % of the daily range in points?

In my view, if you have a mechanical system with a positive expectancy you'd just trade it indefinitely and take every signal you get. It may very well be automated or semi-automated. There's no reason to stop trading because you're ahead on the day as that's a mentality saying you got lucky and have to call it a day in order to not lose it.

Discretionary day trading on the other hand, is however a performance activity and like any other activity you can't maintain peak performance and focus indefinitely.

Further, the stress/fatigue you experience as a discretionary day trader I'd say is highly correlated to the degree of discretion and/or risk profile.

So, a trader that's highly discretionary and finds himself guessing (What the hell is the market doing here? Is this a bottom? Is this a top? Is this an IHS?) a lot while taking huge risks should experience a high level of stress and burn his fuses quickly.

At the other hand of the spectrum you may have an expert trader with a well defined process that's not very discretionary and who knows very well what he's doing at all times (including knowing when to stay out of the market and waiting for the right time to participate) and is also trading with a low risk profile using money he can easily afford to lose. This individual should experience a very low level of stress and can sustain his performance far longer.

For me, personally, I don't have a set daily target these days, but I have a few guidelines and principles that I generally follow:

- If the market already made a large move or hit my predicted targets/scenario for the day, I will usually call it a day as I consider the rest of the day more difficult/uncertain and I already extracted the easy profits. If I'm in drawdown at that point I may continue trading.

- If I'm up well above my average profitable day, I may call it a day or allow myself one final trade after which I will call it a day. I will NEVER let a very profitable day turn into a losing day.

- If I still want to continue trading I may scale down my size as an alternative to calling it a day completely.

I'm answering to this post because it's an interesting question. I have at times in the past worked with a daily target and I still thinks this holds some attraction as it encourages daily consistency and gives a good feeling when you hit your target. Instead of trying to squeeze everything you can out of the market, you're treating the market as a vehicle where you can safely extract a few safe points and can call it a day after that.

Thoughts and comments are welcome.
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Hey LF…. My daily quota has been for quite some time the same .. $10K … on average I win between 16 & 18 trading days out of a 20 trading day month… that’s been my mantra for the last 12 yrs…. I actually wind up, more often than not, with the same yield on the morning session set up @ 7500 or 12,300… rarely seems to change….

I know I asked open ended question for discussion purposes… glad u responded …
Mondays mornings are my worst performing sessions… so I turn Monday morning into observation mode only…. Best performing days/ sessions are Tuesday, Weds, Thursday & Friday morning…. If I’m any where near quota, let alone over it like Friday… I’m done for the week! I have a firm belief from day trading perspective is to always go out on high note As that positive energy/ clarity always carries over to next session ….
As Yogi says, this game is 90% physical… the other Half is phsychological….. So those are the parameters I’ve set for myself … simple & clean with No tolerance for bullshit or excuses!
It has served me well for quite some time… If it’s not broken… don’t fix it!
 
My view of this year, first half at least, is that the chop continues, maybe more volatile than in 2022 maybe not, but so much is dependent on what the FED and other CBs choose to do, data from primary indicators, black swan event/s. If it stays as it is now, then probably we continue down but with some wild swings in both directions. I guess it would help staying nimble with targets and aggressively emotionless with stops, up down choppy as F for 2023 ;)
 
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