ES Journal - 2023/2024

v-shape-0DTE said:
I'm out of any put position. Not holding through a blast off tomorrow morning. Needed any red candle, but this won't fall out of the sky with such a dominant green candle today. This thing will be 506-507 at the open.
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Wise call. Same outcome as the last time you went 'bearish'. Stick to your original gameplan until we get that big red candle. :)

Tomorrow could definitely see a nosedive. Nobody knows.

I know the gambler in me would be tempted to hold a position, but I'll be flat on that release.
 
Laissez Faire said:
Wise call. Same outcome as the last time you went 'bearish'. Stick to your original gameplan until we get that big red candle. :)

Tomorrow could definitely see a nosedive. Nobody knows.

I know the gambler in me would be tempted to hold a position, but I'll be flat on that release.
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Not a single red day in July. 7 straight green days in a row. The monthly Candle already has matched the June candle. If you wait for that big red candle you might miss the move and in this market there is never any follow through so if it has an April 4th candle it will be too late.

As for tomorrow there is no scenario where it just drops straight off of CPI and then falls like 1-1.5%. If it opens red any dip is instantly bought. I don't see a way this could drop leaving any gap. The best way is to get a gap up and then drop. I could see a scenario where you get a 506-507 open and a 496-497 close tomorrow. But considering I don't see a path where it doesn't touch green any puts held overnight you are looking at an automatic 30-40% hit.
 
upload_2024-7-10_23-1-45.png


One of the most brazen end-of-day settlements in years. E Minis settled 25 full points above upper BBs. This will end tomorrow in a blood bath after CPI.

Also, underlying cash didn´t even close the ridiculous opening bell gap:

upload_2024-7-10_23-5-8.png


Ideal day to buy some deep-out-of-the-money puts. Punishment for the brazen price action will follow.
 
maybe, i have not put on lot of leverage since october last year, merely 2 lots and 2 additional lots, vs 5-20 in the previous cycle. and have no plan to be bullish. rsp spy and 2-10 spreads are real.
 
v-shape-0DTE said:
Not a single red day in July. 7 straight green days in a row. The monthly Candle already has matched the June candle. If you wait for that big red candle you might miss the move and in this market there is never any follow through so if it has an April 4th candle it will be too late.

As for tomorrow there is no scenario where it just drops straight off of CPI and then falls like 1-1.5%. If it opens red any dip is instantly bought. I don't see a way this could drop leaving any gap. The best way is to get a gap up and then drop. I could see a scenario where you get a 506-507 open and a 496-497 close tomorrow. But considering I don't see a path where it doesn't touch green any puts held overnight you are looking at an automatic 30-40% hit.
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Miss the move? Better to miss a tiny pullback than stepping in front of the freight train which was my point. If there's a substantial pullback or correction - there will be more than enough time to capitalize on it. And if it's just a pullback, well, be ready to re-enter long. :)

Let's see what tomorrow brings. Overconfidence is lethal in this game. Best to stay humble. :)
 
I saw this tonight in a little free occasional newsletter I subbed to back when I thought options was going to be the thing that made me rich.

upload_2024-7-10_19-11-31.png


It is interesting, I'll grant that.

But how to make money with this info? He is comparing today's market to the "pre-Volmageddon" market of 2018 (before my time).

Like @Laissez Faire has said, when it happens, there will be time enough to get a belly full of whatever meat comes off this bone. In the meantime, I would think that the way you make money with this info is to buy the dips.

I think today cured me of shorting until we get a market that does more than dip. I only lost 5 ticks, so big deal, right? But what a rally I missed. When I was packing up to leave and posting that trade I should have been buying.

Buy the dips, all the dips, and nothing but the dips.
 
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