permabears are very few however everyone is expecting a natural correction, until then wall of worries are everywhere. 2-10 and rsp-spy spreads are real. unless stars are aligned, don’t bet the farm. 401k may become 301k.
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
permabears are very few however everyone is expecting a natural correction, until then wall of worries are everywhere. 2-10 and rsp-spy spreads are real. unless stars are aligned, don’t bet the farm. 401k may become 301k.
Exactly.
There are always hoards of permabears that can't cope with the fact being right or informed doesn't mean markets won't continue to shit on them by going higher and higher.
And if you are implying a possible 25% haircut from "401 to 301" any time soon - good luck. @Laissez Faire is the authority on statistics in these parts. I'm sure he could tell you that you're odds of that happening across history in general are pretty damn low.
That's true, but they all have one thing in common. When they do happen, there's a lot of euphoria in the air and they take most retail players by complete surprise. A lot of money evaporates very fast. Merlyn is right, never bet the farm. Let the whales swing for the fences, be confident in the knowledge that over the course of a season----base hits win the pennant. jmho
i am an zero sum guy, not part of the statistics, these days they called yolo traders. it is unreal to see the big 7 market cap exceeds chinese market cap, one big drug company exceeds its home country gdp. that’s a writing on the wall.
Of course you don't bet the farm - although had you bet the farm on the S&P, or better yet the Q's and let the farm sit over the years you'd be crushing most players (including the bigs).
That wasn't my point though. My point was people can have credible bearish economic opinions and build strong negative hypotheticals all day every day. It does nothing for your investments if markets choose to run higher.
Bottom line it doesn't pay often to be a bear - and the short periods in history where it does - most don't have the experience or skill to take advantage of it because PA is much more violent.
**EDIT: Reminds me of an amazing bond trader I talked with decades ago that worked on the floor. I remember having a discussion with her one day, voicing my thoughts on current market conditions. She cut me off not far into my rant and said: "Do you want to talk about markets or do you want to make money?"
All business that woman...
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Man, this really does feel like 1999 all over again. You just don't know where the damn top is. But when it does come, it ain't gonna be pretty. Probably a lot severe than what we saw in 2000-2003 correction.
No argument here. Everything you said is right.Of course you don't bet the farm - although had you bet the farm on the S&P, or better yet the Q's and let the farm sit over the years you'd be crushing most players (including the bigs).
That wasn't my point though. My point was people can have credible bearish economic opinions and build strong negative hypotheticals all day every day. It does nothing for your investments if markets choose to run higher.
Bottom line it doesn't pay often to be a bear - and the short periods in history where it does - most don't have the experience or skill to take advantage of it because PA is much more violent.
**EDIT: Reminds me of an amazing bond trader I talked with decades ago that worked on the floor. I remember having a discussion with her one day, voicing my thoughts on current market conditions. She cut me off not far into my rant and said: "Do you want to talk about markets or do you want to make money?"
Looking back, we should have all just bought the "Izzy Bottom" and went on holiday.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-journal-2019-2020.328086/page-1749#post-5053374
B1 deserves some kudos. A lot really. Even his last call (not too long ago actually)... that I said was crazy.... we were at 4900 I think, and he called for 10% more upside. Look where we're at. It turned out to be right.
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