ES Journal - 2023/2024

theapprentice · Oct 5, 2023

looks weak as piss now. Happy with that lucky exit on that long

Spooz Top 2 · Oct 5, 2023

I wanted 4300 or bust....

tiddlywinks · Oct 5, 2023

Spooz Top 2 said:
Heavys are IN Charge... they want to defecate all over that faux inside day!

ES 4230

Axon · Oct 5, 2023

theapprentice said:
figured not much point in the live call stuff, but good start to day after that annoying stop in globex

I really appreciate the trouble you and the others go through calling your trades. Seeing the chart after the fact just isn't the same as watching the trade develop in real time, seeing stops moved, and trying to reason out why @theapprentice, @Spooz Top 2, and everybody else took their trades as they are happening. I'm an experienced swing trader but beginner day trader and while I would never copy trade anything I see here since that's not a valid approach to learning, being along for the ride is very valuable. Obviously none of you guys owe me anything so if the posts interfere with your groove I completely understand. Just know that when you do get a chance to post on the spot it is appreciated.

Laissez Faire · Oct 5, 2023

Laissez Faire said:
Two inside days in a row is fairly rare, so we should take out either yesterday's low or high by the Close. No bias for now. Could be too early for longs, IMHO.

Since 2015, we've had 232 Inside Days on ES excluding yesterday for now. That's 11 % of all days in the sample.

Following an Inside Day - we only printed another Inside Day 9 times out of 232.

Maybe today will be the exception, but it certainly lends caution against the long side. I would not swing a long here based on this information.

Watching for new lows from here, i.e. 4250 or more.

Buy1Sell2 · Oct 5, 2023

Huge move imminent!

tiddlywinks · Oct 5, 2023

Laissez Faire said:
Since 2015, we've had 232 Inside Days on ES excluding yesterday for now. That's 11 % of all days in the sample.

I'm not positive, but I think you have a bug in your analysis.
For starters, I eyeballed the month July23.
Maybe (bit maybe not) I will spend a little time after the close looking in detail.

Laissez Faire · Oct 5, 2023

tiddlywinks said:
I'm not positive, but I think you have a bug in your analysis.
For starters, I eyeballed the month July23.
Maybe (bit maybe not) I will spend a little time after the close looking in detail.

Would be happy if you find any bugs in my data (I doubt it).

Keep in mind I'm using RTH data only (09:30 - 16:00) and exclude shorter days (low volume holidays).

Thank you.

tiddlywinks · Oct 5, 2023

Laissez Faire said:
Would be happy if you find any bugs in my data (I doubt it).

Keep in mind I'm using RTH data only (09:30 - 16:00) and exclude shorter days (low volume holidays).

Thank you.

This is good... setting the parameters.

How are you determining inside? ... higher low (> low) /lower high (< high) -OR- equal to or higher low (>= low) / equal to or lower high (<= high).

Also... for sequential insides... are your using only the previous bar boundaries, or the boundaries of the bar preceding the first inside?

Laissez Faire · Oct 5, 2023

tiddlywinks said:
This is good... setting the parameters.

How are you determining inside? ... higher low (> low) /lower high (< high) -OR- equal to or higher low (>= low) / equal to or lower high (<= high).

Also... for sequential insides... are your using only the previous bar boundaries, or the boundaries of the bar preceding the first inside?

Inside Day = High <= PD High & Low >= PD Low

Always referencing the Prior Day.

So, if it's a 3 day pattern, this 3rd bar would not be an Inside Day according to my definition, although it's still inside the 1st bar.