ES Journal - 2023/2024

theapprentice said:
out here +8.5
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done for day. Not easy
 
Laissez Faire said:
There's a few juicy gaps below at 4300 / 4200, so if the market loses momentum on this recent leg higher that's where we might be headed.
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So, as September is over, it's interesting to see how this played out. The market did not fully close that gap below, but bounced off that trend line - closing the month down - 4.87 % on SPX.

October should be interesting. I wonder if we'll see a move higher from this area as the short side should start getting crowded here, but it might not start early next week as we could get some churning in this area first. Maybe fully closing that gap and testing the 200 MA. But if we start moving higher, I'll have some confidence playing the long side.

Since 2000, all years with a red September had a green October 8 out of 12. Last year was a good October up 7.99 % compared to 6.91 % in 2021.

October 2008 was a large down month at - 16.83 %.
 
My guess as of now, is that tomorrow will be an Up Day and that we'll also see an Up Week.

Primarily looking at that open gap above from Friday the 20th as a preliminary target. 4402,2 on SPX. 4448 on ES.

Maybe a test of last week's low first, but we might not get that. Of course, shit could also hit the fan and we continue lower, but I would guess not.

I see there's a bit of FED speak this week, starting with Powell tomorrow at 11:00. So, that could always shake up things... :)

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Laissez Faire said:
October should be interesting. I wonder if we'll see a move higher from this area as the short side should start getting crowded here, but it might not start early next week as we could get some churning in this area first. Maybe fully closing that gap and testing the 200 MA. But if we start moving higher, I'll have some confidence playing the long side.

Since 2000, all years with a red September had a green October 8 out of 12. Last year was a good October up 7.99 % compared to 6.91 % in 2021.

October 2008 was a large down month at - 16.83 %.
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FWIW I feel like the bearishness has been dialed up to 11. The equity weakness and blow-off type move in rates into the Q3 end seems like the perfect setup for another big leg up into EOY. Purely a guess for fun though.
 
Specterx said:
FWIW I feel like the bearishness has been dialed up to 11. The equity weakness and blow-off type move in rates into the Q3 end seems like the perfect setup for another big leg up into EOY. Purely a guess for fun though.
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Thats my projection.

New ATH before a long period of back and forth.
 
Overnight said:
The S&P will not reach a new ATH until the Fed starts QE V. That's my projection.
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And when would that be??

We're practically in a stagflation. In order for QE5 to happen, we need a deep recession (deep enough to bring both Russia and the Saudi to their knees). And that's what I predict will happen in 2024.
 
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