ES Journal - 2023/2024

The market's running out of breath/breadth up here. I was hoping there was enough punch left in the market to take us to 4090 today, but surely not.

Will stop out of that trade for+ 14 or 4088 or by the electronic close.

EDIT: That's a nice trend. Closed it at 85 for + 18 points on two contracts.

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vanzandt said:
I actually calculated 4075, but I thought large sell orders would come in before that and keep things below 4070.
Hmmm.
4077 should work nicely.
But... hmph.
Well my upside Fib on cash SPX was 4144
Hmmm.
I still think this is a blow-off top.
I guess we'll see.
More...

VZ, There is no evidence of a blow off top here.... The definition of a BOT is a massive rip north
with a Hi print followed by a quick a quick reversal south bound leaving a long term swing hi top in place for quite some time.... The move up is not a melt up but usually a news driven event.
 
I'm buying this dip (4082). And if I'm wrong - I'm buying once again.

I have my eyes set on 4100.

Hard to imagine we'll go much further than that without pulling back some in the coming weeks, but who knows.

EDIT: Stopped out at 78. Low ticked me, maybe. Ready to re-enter, but may see low 70s. Waiting a bit here.
 
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Apparently, I was low ticked. Considered using a wider stop, but whenever I do that they seem to get hit. LOL.

Got back in and added a contract on rising prices. Most of my statistical biases are exploited for this week and I think we may be near a short term top, so I'm not extremely confident, but enough that I'll hold this B/E for 4095.

Buy the dip / risk on / window dressing may take us there. But as pointed out yesterday, the odds of a positive close on the last trading day of March is 50/50.
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