ES Journal - 2023/2024

schizo said:
Do FOMC minutes carry much weight? I thought it was just a regurgitation of what they've done in the recent FOMC rate action.
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Yes, it would this time. Reading the tea leaves, some might be surprised. We don't know next rate hike, 20bps or 50bps?
 
mervyn said:
Yes, it would this time. Reading the tea leaves, some might be surprised. We don't know next rate hike, 20bps or 50bps?
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Didn't Powell mentioned the word pivot in November and we got 50 bps in December? What does "pivot" mean here then?
 
schizo said:
I think we've just put in the bottom for the day. Whether we actually reverse and head up from here or merely chop till we drop is anyone's guess. I'll leave it at that.
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As expected, you're now officially sucked into the vortex aka chop zone. Enjoy. :confused: :sneaky:
 
newbie463 said:
my guess is 0.25 for the next 3 meetings............. unless something breaks before then.
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Seriously? From what I've last heard, Powell said he ain't letting up until 2% target is achieved. At 0.25%, it will be more like the next 3 years rather than next 3 meetings.

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schizo said:
Seriously? From what I've last heard, Powell said he ain't letting up until 2% target is achieved. At 0.25%, it will be more like the next 3 years rather than next 3 meetings.

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Hey Schizo, (adding a little color to my comment) my prediction is predicated on the known terminal rate dot plots. consensus appears to be around 5pc. So that's 0.75 more (total) based on current data.

Of course, that is all data dependent and assumes CPI and NFP come in near the consensus expectations. If data is in line with expectations and he goes more than 0.25 at the next meeting, I think we will see new lows pretty quickly.
 
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