ES Journal - 2023/2024

[themickey]

Mick, ya need to polish up buddy. Somebody's been saying since early January that we're going up to 4400.

Markets are like a moody person swinging from euphoria to depression, dang hard to know what they're doing next, but I knew this person once (now dead) they couldn't go long feeling good about themselves, they always felt the need to pack a frequent dummy spit to feel grounded, that's what the market does, if it begins to run too hard, it needs to reverse but getting the timing is what maybe we spend too much futile time on.

Edit, but my call is mkts definitely bullish but my algo says expect some resistance this week.

 

[schizo]

I knew this person once (now dead) they couldn't go long feeling good about themselves, they always felt the need to pack a frequent dummy spit to feel grounded, that's what the market does, if it begins to run too hard, it needs to reverse but getting the timing is what maybe we spend too much futile time on.

Sitting on your hands is the best trade these days. Yeah, there will be violent whipsaws like today, but overall the market psychology is pathologically bullish. So, eventually, you will come out more alive than dead.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Sitting on your hands is the best trade these days. Yeah, there will be violent whipsaws like today, but overall the market psychology is pathologically bullish. So, eventually, you will come out more alive than dead.

Only if you have an early entry or don't trade with leverage...

 

[Laissez Faire]

No new gaps last week, but a volume pocket was created in the 4100 area on that late session FED surge on Wednesday. Basically, the market went too high, too fast.

So, maybe a pullback to 4100 to start the week. Friday's pattern also have a negative bias (net change down) for the coming Monday. 4100 won't be bought on that basis alone, but if price slows down in that area it can be a good spot to enter.

Volume pocket in the 4100 area filled...

If we do trade higher on the week, there's an open gap at 4230 ES / 4228 SPX.

Above that, there's another gap on 4288,5 ES / 4284 SPX.

Still in play...

I'm not as bullish as many others, so I'm being cautious up here, but that 4230 tag looks very much possible by end of week. Even as soon as tomorrow.

I suspect this rally would (could?) lose steam going into that 4250 - 4300 area, though. But that's just guessing.

 

[schizo]

Only if you have an early entry or don't trade with leverage...

But you've been told since January 5th

we should bolt higher up to 4400!

 

[Bad_Badness]

Done:
AM: 10 RT for 287
PM 6 RT for 658

 

[mervyn]

My short term price target is still intact, 4096. Stock prices will catch up with the disappointing earnings quickly. Chipotle down $77.

 

[formikatrading]

The reality is being a bull at the right time is so counterintuitive -- it's like a pilot flying in fog who trusts his instruments that assure him he needs to pull up from a decline when everything in his body tells him he is fine and has been climbing. That's pretty much what they think happened in the Kobe Bryant helicopter crash -- the pilot wasn't certified in instruments and he got into fog and then become disoriented so he relied on how he was feeling rather than looking at his instruments. He thought he was climbing when he was, in fact, descending. That stuck with me.

The bear case is always the most logical and the one that often feels right when it's wrong.

I see many reasons to be bearish from a fundamental viewpoint, but in terms of prices I struggle a bit to be too bearish, here. Maybe it's a mental blockage. I definitely find trading the long side easier, even though I took 20 points on the short side as late as yesterday.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Volume pocket in the 4100 area filled...

View attachment 305798



Still in play...

I'm not as bullish as many others, so I'm being cautious up here, but that 4230 tag looks very much possible by end of week. Even as soon as tomorrow.

I suspect this rally would (could?) lose steam going into that 4250 - 4300 area, though. But that's just guessing.

View attachment 305799

 

[Laissez Faire]

But you've been told since January 5th

So, you've been long since January 5th? Pretty sure you were bearish a week or two ago, though.

The reality is being a bull at the right time is so counterintuitive -- it's like a pilot flying in fog who trusts his instruments that assure him he needs to pull up from a decline when everything in his body tells him he is fine and has been climbing. That's pretty much what they think happened in the Kobe Bryant helicopter crash -- the pilot wasn't certified in instruments and he got into fog and then become disoriented so he relied on how he was feeling rather than looking at his instruments. He thought he was climbing when he was, in fact, descending. That stuck with me.

The bear case is always the most logical and the one that often feels right when it's wrong.

Well, if you look beyond a price chart and consider the conditions that have been driving this prior bull-market they're no longer present. We actually have interest rates now, money is no longer free and the FED is no longer flooding the market with free money. So, things that didn't matter in the recent past like earnings and economics should matter now.

I struggle to see why we would have a sustained bull market in these conditions.

Doesn't mean I'm not playing the long side. I am. For me, being long is always much easier and it takes more conviction for me to enter a short.