ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
But doesn't it look way too obvious? I would say this is a big TRAP. Although nothing is off the table, I'm more inclined to say we'll be heading north tomorrow, and by a big margin. Be careful out there if you're betting your farm.
Trust me on this one. 2023's gonna be a shitstorm, probably the hardest year to trade IMO. Both bulls and bears will get chewed up and spitted out.
This is for our resident permabear. As you can see in the chart, we're going through a similar chopzone in June. But that happened at the top of the range, whereas now we're at the bottom. So it makes sense to go in the opposite direction, don't ya think? In that case, we should bolt higher up to 4400, if we apply the "measured move" (drawn here with the arrows). Speaking of which, I got into a heated debate yesterday with another ET poster about measured move. He thinks measured move is synonymous with Fib retracement 
. And would you believe it? 4400 is actually a 50% fib retracement from today's low to the top of 2022 as well as 61.8% retracement of the entire 2022 range. Well, you can see that all the stars line up.
. And would you believe it? 4400 is actually a 50% fib retracement from today's low to the top of 2022 as well as 61.8% retracement of the entire 2022 range. Well, you can see that all the stars line up.
This is for our resident permabear. As you can see in the chart, we're going through a similar chopzone in June. But that happened at the top of the range, whereas now we're at the bottom. So it makes sense to go in the opposite direction, don't ya think? In that case, we should bolt higher up to 4400, if we apply the "measured move" (drawn here with the arrows). Speaking of which, I got into a heated debate yesterday with another ET poster about measured move. He thinks measured move is synonymous with Fib retracement
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99% agree. I just think the trend line will repel downwards before we get to 4400. If we did break out of the trend then I think that would be a bit too bullish. Like you, I think this year will be pretty sideways.
In fact, if I "invert" the chart upside down, the chopzone in June looks amazingly similar to the one now.This is for our resident permabear. As you can see in the chart, we're going through a similar chopzone in June. But that happened at the top of the range, whereas now we're at the bottom. So it makes sense to go in the opposite direction, don't ya think? In that case, we should bolt higher up to 4400, if we apply the "measured move" (drawn here with the arrows). Speaking of which, I got into a heated debate yesterday with another ET poster about measured move. He thinks measured move is synonymous with Fib retracement
View attachment 303012
...and this is what happened after the breakout (or rather breakdown, since this is a flipped chart).
Except probabilities are that time range-bound chop like current PA resumes the prior trend - not a reversal.This is for our resident permabear. As you can see in the chart, we're going through a similar chopzone in June. But that happened at the top of the range, whereas now we're at the bottom. So it makes sense to go in the opposite direction, don't ya think? In that case, we should bolt higher up to 4400, if we apply the "measured move" (drawn here with the arrows). Speaking of which, I got into a heated debate yesterday with another ET poster about measured move. He thinks measured move is synonymous with Fib retracement
View attachment 303012
(Note I prefer to use $SPX itself for longer term analysis) Wave 4 of a higher level Wave A or 1 down currently.
As for a measured move that is taking one swing and projecting it up (or vice versa down) from the next swing depending on trend direction of course. Typically 61.8%/100%/161.8% amounts. So although it is not specially a fib thing the ratios can and are used by most AFAIK.
Oh I don't know----I suspect that the markets are jut waiting until after NFP tomorrow to start getting active for the coming year.