ES Journal - 2023/2024

upload_2024-9-19_21-19-49.jpeg


Go figure. :rolleyes:

vanzandt said:
Well we made 5600 spx, 5700 still might be a reach though.

If we do get close to 5700 between now and next Wednesday, that would be the time to sell for now. Unless we get close to there today. Then use 5734 next week.
More...
 
Last edited:
Where's my boy Master Trader NoPlan at tonight?

Master!!!!

Did you enjoy the Harvest Moon?
I think I shared this before the Fed meeting.

Yep, pretty sure I did... when everyone in the world said we're gonna crash...

To the penny.
vanzandt said:
--->5734 Noplan. :wtf:
More...

Don't be scared son... I'm a nice guy. I only use it for good.
 
As pointed out by @nillionaire already - today is triple witching day. Over the last 5 years the average daily change on that day is - 0.71 % with 80 % being negative. 65 % took out the prior day low.

Now, I'm sure the recent rate cut is a more important factor, but to me, this data suggests caution against pushing the long side today. Personally, I'd expect range bound action. I see 2 days in my sample which did trend higher, but most didn't.

Fortunately, I won't be around to trade this mess today. :)
 
I complain when they take my stop and then dump/rally in my intended direction, so I guess I should also highlight the times where it comes to within an inch of my stop but doesn't get me and then goes where I wanted lol (as happened on that second trade. My stop was like 1 tick higher than the high)

Was pretty sure we'd get a little dip,but not the best timing on them attempts. Day is young!

upload_2024-9-20_14-11-23.png
 
NoahA said:
This certainly makes sense, and it jives well with what QTrader was saying about waiting for the right volume to come in before a big move can happen. But he of course is keeping his lips sealed about any specifics... LOL

Edit.... I should add though that in my opinion, volume doesn't seem to matter. This entire move higher after the Fed meeting was during the overnight session, so the volume was tiny. But I think what Qtrader was getting at was having some way to maybe forecast when the large move is going to come and not necessarily high volume trading.
More...

It took me over 15 years of blood and sweat to study why and how those big moves occur, which I shared some of my thoughts years ago on ET. Btw, about sharing my thoughts I believe I was the first one on ET who kept mentioning about how important about Futures gaps and etc. many years ago (as well as from a prior nick which I stopped using it) I see a lot of newbies here are tracking those gaps thereafter. However, I notice some of them tracking it in a wrong way or they have no clue how to take advantage of it. The only ET member that I find who might know how to take advantage of it is @LZ.

Back to the main topic, many big moves don't just occur randomly out of nowhere. It takes hours to at least longer than a day for BPs to get ready. Markets (one must also look at both Futures and Cash market) always create some noise beforehand. If you look carefully enough, you'll detect those noise.

However, knowing what BPs do is only half of the pic. MMs can manipulate PAs in both ways before real move gets triggered. This is how 90% of traders missing out those million $$$ trades. Once they realize that it's too late, they will try to scalp here and there for some pennies. Yup, I used to be that guy :banghead: but my win rate from those scalping strategies was extremely high and I showed tons of my pnl on here which some of you still remember. Speaking of which, I seldom sit in front of my monitors these days to scalp for pennies as I try to live in a healthy life.

Hope you understand what I write from a guy who speaks five languages daily and English is at the bottom of my list.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top