Out BE
ES Journal - 2023/2024
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
So we end the week on the green. But that long tail is unsettling. It's bullish to see these at the BOTTOM of the trend. But we're still relatively at the top of the trend.
I tried to take a quick look in my DB, but the sample size for this type of week (huge gap down and rally into week end) is very small, so cautious against reading too much into it.
However, the last few times ES had a week which hit 10 % down (+/- 2 %) and rallied into week end, the next week rallied higher early in the week before easing off a bit into week end.
So, based on that, that's my take, too. Big or medium sized rally on Monday through Tuesday/Wednesday. As always, let price confirm...
CPI on Wednesday may kill or enforce any rally up until that point.
@schizo posted a weekly chart and you're posting a daily. ES opened closer to last week's lows. By the time SPX opened on Monday, it was well below its previous week's close.
The SPX weekly chart feels very bullish to me. Gap down open and then rally to close at its highs?
I dislike candlesticks as much as I dislike Al Brooks and prefer OHLC bars like you, but to make an apples to apples with @schizo's ES weekly chart I used candles.
Very bullish weekly candle, don't you think. Correction is over. BTFD mode engaged. Going to take a trip in my tiny rocket ship to the moon.
I would add: Notice if one draws a trendline channel from early on. As time goes on, the trend in slightly broken on the downside and then recovers into another channel. This latter channel is slightly more horizontal.
There is probably some term for this since it is VERY common. For simplicity, I just call it a trend rotation.
To me these trend rotations:
1) occur when a trend is ending short term.
2) the channel analysis is not that valid anymore and EARLY consolidation horizontal channel is more in play for S/R.
3) Volatility should increase as Holders and Sellers swap out positions, which actually is called "rotation".
4) Lastly, it is a time to not interpret too much about the trend continuation nor reversal from a longer time frame.
So what is actionable? Trade what is happening at the moment, instead of trying to get it to fit into a longer term analysis, be quicker to take profits, and agnostic on direction.
if 5000 comes into play again and we break down, Bulls need to hold the daily 200MA.
if we bounce from here, the next leg up will have to be VERY convincing to bring the bulls enough to overwhelm the shorts, given we are mid summer going into fall.
But this is all arm chair stuff, so YM WILL vary.
My two cents: Consolidation in a wide channel with wild swings is my working assumption.
There is probably some term for this since it is VERY common. For simplicity, I just call it a trend rotation.
To me these trend rotations:
1) occur when a trend is ending short term.
2) the channel analysis is not that valid anymore and EARLY consolidation horizontal channel is more in play for S/R.
3) Volatility should increase as Holders and Sellers swap out positions, which actually is called "rotation".
4) Lastly, it is a time to not interpret too much about the trend continuation nor reversal from a longer time frame.
So what is actionable? Trade what is happening at the moment, instead of trying to get it to fit into a longer term analysis, be quicker to take profits, and agnostic on direction.
if 5000 comes into play again and we break down, Bulls need to hold the daily 200MA.
if we bounce from here, the next leg up will have to be VERY convincing to bring the bulls enough to overwhelm the shorts, given we are mid summer going into fall.
But this is all arm chair stuff, so YM WILL vary.
My two cents: Consolidation in a wide channel with wild swings is my working assumption.
I would add: Notice if one draws a trendline channel from early on. As time goes on, the trend in slightly broken on the downside and then recovers into another channel. This latter channel is slightly more horizontal.
There is probably some term for this since it is VERY common. For simplicity, I just call it a trend rotation.
To me these trend rotations:
1) occur when a trend is ending short term.
2) the channel analysis is not that valid anymore and EARLY consolidation horizontal channel is more in play for S/R.
3) Volatility should increase as Holders and Sellers swap out positions, which actually is called "rotation".
4) Lastly, it is a time to not interpret too much about the trend continuation nor reversal from a longer time frame.
So what is actionable? Trade what is happening at the moment, instead of trying to get it to fit into a longer term analysis, be quicker to take profits, and agnostic on direction.
if 5000 comes into play again and we break down, Bulls need to hold the daily 200MA.
if we bounce from here, the next leg up will have to be VERY convincing to bring the bulls enough to overwhelm the shorts, given we are mid summer going into fall.
But this is all arm chair stuff, so YM WILL vary.
it is only squeeze, both longs and shorts. stay put for now.
Hey guys, Asking those who were there:
On April 10th 2024 FOMC meeting was 11 AM PST.
But at 5 minutes after 10 AM PST, ~one hour earlier, the volume goes up and volitility goes nuts for the hour prior to the meeting. BTW, CPI was released at 5:30 AM PT.
Normally the hour before the FOMC announcement is quite with only a few positions being placed.
Anyone know what happened?
On April 10th 2024 FOMC meeting was 11 AM PST.
But at 5 minutes after 10 AM PST, ~one hour earlier, the volume goes up and volitility goes nuts for the hour prior to the meeting. BTW, CPI was released at 5:30 AM PT.
Normally the hour before the FOMC announcement is quite with only a few positions being placed.
Anyone know what happened?
I'm mostly in agreement with this. We've been swinging in a 125 - 150 pt range on the ES.
So long as there aren't anymore negative catalysts (e.g. ME escalation), I suspect we are ultimately done selling off and headed higher, though.