ES Journal - 2023/2024

doubledoubledoublecup said:
I know what you mean, I don't think we have any more stock market crash kind of sell off if we trade above 5350. Looks like big boy want to bid it higher to sell at RTH. No technical, just Conspiracy theory LOL.
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We're all just attempting to make an educated guess here, LOL. Yesterday was a failure to get back inside last week's range. So, the big question is if it was THE failure or just an initial failure as breakouts can take a few attempts to work out.
 
flash crash said:
With the gap open below 18500, I feel that NQ will trade up to that level, give or take a few points either way. To do that it will breakout above yesterday's high, which is also yesterday's open, which is also the open of the weekly Globex bar. That's a lot of breakout mojo that will be pushing into a possible test of 18500.

I feel if NQ gets above and then stays above 18500, then Situation Normal, BTFD.
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I still feel that NQ 18500 and what happens after that level is touched will set the tone for the rest of the week, and possibly the next few weeks. I feel NQ 18500 almost is "inevitable." If I had the courage of my conviction, I'd buy as many as margin would allow right now and bet an 18500 take profit is filled before I am forced to file bankruptcy. Since I lack such courage, I'm sticking to scalping for small slivers of range at a time.
 
flash crash said:
I still feel that NQ 18500 and what happens after that level is touched will set the tone for the rest of the week, and possibly the next few weeks. I feel NQ 18500 almost is "inevitable." If I had the courage of my conviction, I'd buy as many as margin would allow right now and bet an 18500 take profit is filled before I am forced to file bankruptcy. Since I lack such courage, I'm sticking to scalping for small slivers of range at a time.
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Well, you had a day this week which would put everyone else to shame, so whatever you're doing, it's working! :)

Why not trade larger moves on 1 micro for starters to get into it and scalp for small slivers of range simultaneously?
 
Laissez Faire said:
On the other hand, there's that anticipated attack on Israel which may happen. I would guess that should make for a good sell-off.
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IMHO, any not-too-dramatic attack against Israel has already been discounted. Remember that after Israel bombed IRAN'S EMBASSY in Syria, they responded with a showy, but non-lethal barrage, and Putin is now asking them not to inflict much damage.

If they caused massive damage, then it's of course a different matter (escalation, etc.).

Compare 1973 and now :D
 
flash crash said:
I still feel that NQ 18500 and what happens after that level is touched will set the tone for the rest of the week, and possibly the next few weeks. I feel NQ 18500 almost is "inevitable." If I had the courage of my conviction, I'd buy as many as margin would allow right now and bet an 18500 take profit is filled before I am forced to file bankruptcy. Since I lack such courage, I'm sticking to scalping for small slivers of range at a time.
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If, like me, you don't have the stomach for large losses, but can handle large (open profits) drawdowns, you could also put on some reasonable size, manage your risk prudently, ideally add to your winning position, all while targetting 18500.

Best trading to everyone!
 
Picaso said:
IMHO, any not-too-dramatic attack against Israel has already been discounted. Remember that after Israel bombed IRAN'S EMBASSY in Syria, they responded with a showy, but non-lethal barrage, and Putin is now asking them not to inflict much damage.

If they caused massive damage, then it's of course a different matter (escalation, etc.).

Compare 1973 and now :D
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Agreed. It's difficult to know how much is already discounted as we sold off considerably already.

If it's a full scale attack that escalates into an all out war I find it hard to believe we won't see at least a decent initial sell-off, but who knows...

As shown by yesterday's sell into the close this is still a market that can turn on a dime.
 
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