ES Journal - 2023/2024

[vanzandt]

Q: How does one know they're hopelessly addicted to trading?

A: When you cancel a Dr's appointment you made over a month ago because the Super-Bowl Sunday of trading decided to fall on the same day.

QQQ---> $439

 

[poopy]

I love how everyone on CNBC is trying to explain this. The jobs numbers. Japan. Fed emergency cuts. War. On and on and on.

This market doesn't care about any of that. The entire thing is an illusion. A battle of math in cyber-space being fought by Citadel, Bridgewater, Renaissance and a couple others.

Remember when TSLA was $160 a month or so ago and I wrote in that thread that the game was now on... the "higher it goes, the higher it will go" game?

I have a feeling that game is starting right now, but this time on the biggest pig of all... the Q's.

Could be wrong though.... we shall see.

QQQ---> $437

It's a growth scare, and the Fed has a lot of room to act, but at this point in the cycle it won't matter. It was all AI until it wasn't. You really think that this is algos battling it out? C'mon.

SPX won't see 6K for at least 12 months.

 

[Bad_Badness]

Algo 3 longs just now. Right after 9:10 there was some volume.

Manual Long @70; +1 @65; +1 @54
Algo Short@50 Cover @47 +28
Algo Short @30 cover @38 -32
Algo Long @ 42

 

[vanzandt]

It's a growth scare, and the Fed has a lot of room to act, but at this point in the cycle it won't matter. It was all AI until it wasn't. You really think that this is algos battling it out? C'mon.

SPX won't see 6K for at least 12 months.

15% in 12 months and a level that is 5.9% above the current all time high? I think WS can live with that.

 

[schizo]

Starting to look like a Dead Cat Bounce day. Not much reason to go up now. But a few bombs in middle east would be a good reason to retest the low.

I think we'll end the day near 5200 than 5300.

I think it happens after 9 AM, based on recent patterns. But it is setting up for it now. It is as if they set the algos to right after lunch starts. So you can be entertained while eating...

What's not to like about free entertainment over a meal? But not for breakfast, sorry. Way too early.

 

[schizo]

It's a growth scare, and the Fed has a lot of room to act, but at this point in the cycle it won't matter. It was all AI until it wasn't. You really think that this is algos battling it out? C'mon.

SPX won't see 6K for at least 12 months.

As someone said above, this could be the wind down of yen carry trade. Needles to say, all the money borrowed probably went into Bitcoin and AI stocks. Hence, the two biggest casualties for the day

 

[mervyn]

if it is unwinding the carry trade, it just started. japanese government are in so much debt, no hope to getting out.

 

[Bad_Badness]

Algo Out 42-46 for +16
Still Manual Long 3x @63
Algo Long @49 out @40: -45
Algo Long @49 AGAIN! out @ 46 -12
Algo Short@32 out @24: +32
Algo Short@23 out @29: -24

 

[schizo]

in just 20 days, we've sold off 10% (from ATH to today's low). Still, we're up 8.35% for the year.

Now we've been down 3 days in a row, so I would reckon we get a breather soon. We'll likely retrace back up to 5350-5400 area before being taken down again (??).

 

[schizo]

if it is unwinding the carry trade, it just started. japanese government are in so much debt, no hope to getting out.

That too, but it's mainly the differentials that will end up swallowing the unwary investors, especially if BOJ decides to raise the rate while FOMC decides to lower it.