ES Journal - 2021/2022

vanzandt said:
Whatcha think Schiz?
1) One giant flush the next two days leading to capitulation
2) Several smaller flushes through January and THEN the big flush.
3)The santa-claws rally from hell taking us to 4000 to end the year
4) (+/-) .6% thru Friday as everyone says f'it and goes home to drink all weekend with no clue as to where we're heading.
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I dunno. I've learned over the years that when everyone is expecting Rome to burn, that's when the bulls usually come home to roost. Volumes are also too damn light. So I wouldn't put much faith in the recent flush.

If I have to choose, I would go with numero 2.

Watching out for traps than making money in these instances is more vital to your bottomline.
 
ES 4hrs. Just an idea. Could be an IH&S?

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SunTrader said:
$SPX currently is down -21.54% from Jan 4th high of the year. And in October was -27.54%

Gud enuf for me to say bear is and has been here awhile.
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I didn’t count lately but last time I posted we have been crossing the mark 6 times, always tries to bounce above.
 
schizo said:
I dunno. I've learned over the years that when everyone is expecting Rome to burn, that's when the bulls usually come home to roost. Volumes are also too damn light. So I wouldn't put much faith in the recent flush.

If I have to choose, I would go with numero 2.

Watching out for traps than making money in these instances is more vital to your bottomline.
More...
Yeah but, volume was anything but light today.
As I type the futures are pretty much flat.

I have to go back to a major tenet that usually proves itself to be true, and I've written it here on B1's threads more than once... "what is the hardest button to push?" That's the one that wins. In some ways, using the chart, that would be the long button. It's screaming "lower!".

But then again, there are times when what appears to be the obvious... is in fact the obvious.

I think there are tons of traders out there seriously hoping for the governor to call in a stay of execution, they are betting on late Dec history, and their fingers are crossed looking long by Friday close.
I saw some $20M plus option trades today that are betting on a moonshot by Friday. Single leg even.

I dunno Schiz... ( I think your choice of 2 will prove correct) but between now and Friday... I wanna believe in "the easiest button" will work... ie we bottomed and a late Santa rally will happen.... but the trader in me says my tongue in cheek 3947.5 call... ain't happening.
The hardest button to push at the close was to go short, we were 5 points away from the 52 week lows on the q's. Not so much on the S&P but still.
"There's gotta be a bounce."
"It's the end of the year."
Tough call, but any run north between now and Friday will be the exact same thing that pegged the q's at $260 today.... algo's, math, and the deepest pockets with the biggest machines manipulating accordingly.
 
vanzandt said:
I dunno Schiz... ( I think your choice of 2 will prove correct) but between now and Friday... I wanna believe in "the easiest button" will work... ie we bottomed and a late Santa rally will happen.... but the trader in me says my tongue in cheek 3947.5 call... ain't happening.
The hardest button to push at the close was to go short, we were 5 points away from the 52 week lows on the q's. Not so much on the S&P but still.
"There's gotta be a bounce."
"It's the end of the year."
Tough call, but any run north between now and Friday will be the exact same thing that pegged the q's at $260 today.... algo's, math, and the deepest pockets with the biggest machines manipulating accordingly.
More...
It's a toss-up. ES is trading at an important junction IMO and I'm not leaning one way or the other. We could completely break down and go south or reverse back up. If we break down, I see 3750 (or lower). If we reverse, I see 3870.

"Wait and see" is my modus operandi for the time being. Good luck.
 
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