ES Journal - 2021/2022

Good point. But its more oversold now :) Plus I reckon its a bit of a bear trap right now. I would have expected a way bigger/faster drop than we saw after the SPX support broke. So feels like a fake out.
Dude, tread carefully. When it falls this much, this ain't no trap. On the contrary, they trap the bulls, namely, they will pounce down on any bounce.
 
PA rolled over at the 33% Fib retracement level from previous swing hi... Heavy Heavy!!!

Screenshot (283).png
 
Good point. But its more oversold now :) Plus I reckon its a bit of a bear trap right now. I would have expected a way bigger/faster drop than we saw after the SPX support broke. So feels like a fake out.

Will quickly shut down my long though if this goes down much more.
My point about oversold (in quotes) is I don't believe in the OB/OS concept.

Price is what it is. Market gurus and talking heads started that nonsense at some point in the past to explain what they have no idea about.

Price is "oversold" yet continues to get more "oversold". At what point does "oversold" end? Of course the clueless will say it ends once price turns direction. But then we get a dead cat bounce and they will say, no "oversold" period isn't over yet. Nooooo kiddin'.

Best to not think in those terms.
 
3846 is the line, whether we are in a technically bear year since 2008.
That train left the station a week ago today when $SPX wave# 4 closed below the wave#1 low or overlapped it which cancels any EW bull trend scenario and resumes the bear trend:-
! SPX EW failure.gif
 
My point about oversold (in quotes) is I don't believe in the OB/OS concept.

Price is what it is. Market gurus and talking heads started that nonsense at some point in the past to explain what they have no idea about.

Price is "oversold" yet continues to get more "oversold". At what point does "oversold" end? Of course the clueless will say it ends once price turns direction. But then we get a dead cat bounce and they will say, no "oversold" period isn't over yet. Nooooo kiddin'.

Best to not think in those terms.

I guess it depends how you look at it. I have never listened to talking heads. I know they are just trying to connect the price action to events that the casual viewer can comprehend.

I tend to look at the hourly and 4 hourly RSI. When that goes oversold after a big relatively fast move down I tend to look for a bounce. The previous price action around this level on the NQ also supported my thought process. I prefer to move with the trend, but I just didnt think there was much room for more downward action.

This could still turn around and I could be wrong, but for now I've caught the falling knife with my teeth.
 
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