ES Journal - 2021/2022

[formikatrading]

What about if you didn't even know about the upcoming news and just traded your signals?

Holding/initiating a trade into this release is gambling even if the outcome is favourable.

 

[virtusa]

What about if you didn't even know about the upcoming news and just traded your signals?

I traded for many years just my system, and ignored all news.

But since Trump became President, I noticed that the number of losing trades went up and losses became bigger too. I think that there is no system that can avoid losses in these crucial moments as there is no real "nomal" market activity.Even in normal markets it is already difficult to control your positions in a way to make them all profitable.

I studied behavioral finance for years and my opinion is that you cannot efficiently manage your positions in chaos. Even in "normal" markets the majority is not able to make any money consistently. How can you then do that in chaotic or very nervous markets when things happen that can have a huge impact on the market?

EDIT: If your performance depends on the results in these chaotic moments (like FOMC) then you should ask yourself questions about your system. A good system can afford to skip these dangerous moments. Even then it is already a challenge for most traders to make money.

 

[Laissez Faire]

What about if you didn't even know about the upcoming news and just traded your signals?

Well, you can just scroll back your charts and check out the last few CPI releases. Even if you had a stop in place there would be no liquidity for you to exit.

IMO, there are no "signals" or predictive price behavior during such price moves. Only blown accounts or people who got lucky and were on the right side of the market.

My view is that markets are predictable/orderly/technical most of the time, but once in a while chaotic as virtusa called it. Trading when the market is chaotic is gambling as they are unpredictable.

But if anyone here wants to post a chart of successful trading with entries and exits during such periods I may change my mind.

PS: Regular scheduled news releases are a different matter.

PPS: For years most news didn't matter as the world was flowing over with money. These days everything hinges on inflation and the next move from the FED. So, now these news matter a lot.

IMHO.

 

[schizo]

PPS: For years most news didn't matter as the world was flowing over with money. These days everything hinges on inflation and the next move from the FED. So, now these news matter a lot.

Okay, that was yesterday. What do you have for today's action? We're currently selling off in the globex. I have the line in the sand at 3970. If that breaks, all hell breaks loose. What sez you?

 

[schizo]

Buy going into FOMC, then sell afterward.

BTW can I get credit for this?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Okay, that was yesterday. What do you have for today's action? We're currently selling off in the globex. I have the line in the sand at 3970. If that breaks, all hell breaks loose. What sez you?

I'm flattered that you ask, but I have no idea right now to be honest. Not at my trading desk and haven't done any analysis, so would only be guessing.

I'm not sure about all hell breaking loose, but I do think investors/traders hoping for a strong year end rally may get disappointed.

 

[virtusa]

BTW can I get credit for this?

I am confused: you buy at FOMC and sell later???
I give you credit for the luck you had.

Hats off to you schizo, you have more guts than I do. I have my time frame set to 512 ticks and it is chaos, Mr. Market doesn't know where to go.

 

[c1rcle]

I traded for many years just my system, and ignored all news.

But since Trump became President, I noticed that the number of losing trades went up and losses became bigger too. I think that there is no system that can avoid losses in these crucial moments as there is no real "nomal" market activity.Even in normal markets it is already difficult to control your positions in a way to make them all profitable.

I studied behavioral finance for years and my opinion is that you cannot efficiently manage your positions in chaos. Even in "normal" markets the majority is not able to make any money consistently. How can you then do that in chaotic or very nervous markets when things happen that can have a huge impact on the market?

EDIT: If your performance depends on the results in these chaotic moments (like FOMC) then you should ask yourself questions about your system. A good system can afford to skip these dangerous moments. Even then it is already a challenge for most traders to make money.

I would say that higher time frames work better for trading around news.

For day traders, without a confirmed edge for trading around news, its better to stay away during news. Or at the very least manage position size and stop distance around an increased ATR.

Generally, I have been very lucky around the news, but I only hold tiny tiny positions typically just in case, which also then caps my win amount sadly. I generally trade around news based on the overall trend. Lets face it, for quite some time now the news has resulted in bearish price action which has been in line with the trend.

 

[c1rcle]

I am confused: you buy at FOMC and sell later???
I give you credit for the luck you had.



View attachment 301656

He said "going into", not "at".

 

[c1rcle]

All hell is breaking loose