ES Journal - 2021/2022

formikatrading · Nov 17, 2022

One gets rewarded for taking risk -- not always worrying about it.

Overnight said:
Tough call, as tomorrow is op-ex for the month. Could get spicy!

Overnight · Nov 17, 2022

formikatrading said:
One gets rewarded for taking risk -- not always worrying about it.

Have you seen my journal lately? I took some risk on MNQ in August in a swing, and am going to be closing the trade at a loss in a month from now.

So no, not everyone gets rewarded for taking on risk.

formikatrading · Nov 17, 2022

So what is your edge? Do you not use stops?

Overnight said:
Have you seen my journal lately? I took some risk on MNQ in August in a swing, and am going to be closing the trade at a loss in a month from now.

So no, not everyone gets rewarded for taking on risk.

Overnight · Nov 17, 2022

formikatrading said:
So what is your edge? Do you not use stops?

Not for swing trading. My edge was time. It worked until the beginning of this year, when the Fed dropped the banhammer.

c1rcle · Nov 18, 2022

I'm 50 50 about the direction right now so staying out. Closed all shorts yesterday after giving back a tiny amount of profit.

Master Pu · Nov 18, 2022

If one looks at INDU, then it is apparent that Xmas rally is upon us. SPX and NDX do have some junk within them, so would take longer, they aren't leading the way, they are lagging behind. Look at WTIC, it is now in a confirmed reversal and this is a major boost to the economy. Our main issue is Black Swan events, potentially there are a few on the horizon, hence the volatility. VIX is also continuing to fall, which is cool for risk on.

formikatrading · Nov 18, 2022

One could make the case that you're not really trading with an edge.

Overnight said:
Not for swing trading. My edge was time. It worked until the beginning of this year, when the Fed dropped the banhammer.

SunTrader · Nov 18, 2022

Master Pu said:
If one looks at INDU, then it is apparent that Xmas rally is upon us. SPX and NDX do have some junk within them, so would take longer, they aren't leading the way, they are lagging behind. Look at WTIC, it is now in a confirmed reversal and this is a major boost to the economy. Our main issue is Black Swan events, potentially there are a few on the horizon, hence the volatility. VIX is also continuing to fall, which is cool for risk on.

INDU closed yesterday below the same time last week which is clearly not any sign of strength.

Master Pu · Nov 18, 2022

SunTrader said:
INDU closed yesterday below the same time last week which is clearly not any sign of strength.

Look at weekly

Laissez Faire · Nov 18, 2022

formikatrading said:
One gets rewarded for taking risk -- not always worrying about it.

If that was (always) true there wouldn't be any risk would there?

Trading the financial markets is by definition risky. Many have learned that for the first time this year...

Master Pu said:
If one looks at INDU, then it is apparent that Xmas rally is upon us. SPX and NDX do have some junk within them, so would take longer, they aren't leading the way, they are lagging behind. Look at WTIC, it is now in a confirmed reversal and this is a major boost to the economy. Our main issue is Black Swan events, potentially there are a few on the horizon, hence the volatility. VIX is also continuing to fall, which is cool for risk on.

Maybe, but keep in mind that seasonality is actually bearish in bear markets.