Maybe not by you, but wasn’t the same said on prior rallies this year?
Exactly what is different now that will sustain this rally compared to prior rallies which were sold hard?
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Maybe not by you, but wasn’t the same said on prior rallies this year?
Exactly what is different now that will sustain this rally compared to prior rallies which were sold hard?
You do realize $SPX is currently -17% down from ATH?
None of us know whether getting back above ATH is obtainable any time soon - maybe yes, maybe no - but if it does happen within the next 60-90 days, I'd say that would fit very closely the definition of "off to the races".
Six months to a year, nah. Is that timeframe you have in mind?
Its a number of things i dont really care to get into - but the Fed hinting at a shift (even if temporary) is enough in and of itself. There are big entities already repositioning. Some will argue its not that simple. I argue it is. Time will tell.
Who said anything about timeframes? The SPX being down 17% - whats your point?
Do you even read posts in detail before replying or do you just see what you want then start blathering nonsensical replies?
Three things you learn and remember, first the companies earnings expectations, second the interest rate of which the earnings are discounted back to present value, and third the validity of time horizon the earnings are projected.
All these three factors are uncertain. Earnings are bad, interest rate is going up, timing at best is to the year end shopping season.
Fed sees the 75bps hikes are working, they may want to do another 75bps instead of 50bps to push down the inflation. Pullbacks will be sudden when Wall Street turns negative.
From what I saw and read, the pivot was that they are going to be more aggressive, not less. I saw an excellent analysis posted here a few days ago from some fund manager that pointed this out. Have to find it because I think it was spot on, and very bearish going forward.
That was my impression, too, but admittedly I don't follow the macro picture too closely.
What they say and what they end up doing can be very different. Lets just say I dont believe them - and if you dig around deep enough youll find there are big players that feel the same. If you feel as though the rumors on pausing or reducing the bps in the hikes were false then you have to act accordingly. To me - markets dont function as a logical mechanism - and rarely are things as they seem at face value.
Anyway these longer term projections do not matter to me. Im a scalper by trade. So long as markets stay open there is money to be made. The worse the news, the more opportunities through volatility there are to make returns.
Well, for me, I simply don’t see that anything has changed fundamentally that warrants a sustainable rally. Seems like the same pattern repeating as on prior rallies this year.
People were pretty bullish and hopeful on these prior peaks, too. And the market looked very strong.
I imagine a lot of people were caught on the wrong side of the market last week only adding to the buying pressure.
People were pretty bullish and hopeful on these prior peaks, too. And the market looked very strong.
I imagine a lot of people were caught on the wrong side of the market last week only adding to the buying pressure.