I don't trade news or earnings. It already gave a mini bounce, but not much. This is why you're the pro and I am just the joe though brother
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I don't trade news or earnings. It already gave a mini bounce, but not much. This is why you're the pro and I am just the joe though brother
Apple beats but still down ah, sell the news is driving the market.
Apple is only down a tiny bit really. Its AMZN that's really interesting for me. I have never seen AMZN get below its trend line before. That could really impact the indices.
I am no pro. I just think that Apple makes up such a big % of the indices that its kind of beyond news. Its worth keeping an eye on.
I found it most of times subjective till I started adding Tom DeMark's D-Wave to EWT. Counting HHs and LLs or just closes in fib sequences such as low at bottom of a move to start things off needs to be close lower than the previous 20 closes, IOW a 21 bar low close. Then wave 1 up needs to be a 13 bar high close, wave 2 down a 8 bar low close, wave 3 a 21 bar high close, wave 4 a 13 low close, then finally wave 5 a 34 bar high close. Same for corrective waves using 13-8-21 sequence. Then rinse repeatI followed Elliott Wave in the beginning of my trading career but soon gave up due to its subjectiveness. Anyway, been adding to my existing short all day. Hopefully, this market doesn't surprise me (again) with it's face ripper
Wave counts sequences are adjusted based on timeframe but always in the same ratio as above, so 13 to start off beginning of new wave then 8-5-13-8-21 and so on or higher level count - 34 then 21-13-34-21-55.
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Very few financial reporters have a clue. Checking CNBC's website for the AMZN/AAPL news seen this:-
"Dow closes nearly 200 points higher on better-than-expected GDP report, Nasdaq tumbles"
Yep, except more importantly the Dow closed down from where it opened and formed an ugly Pinbar after a similar looking one yesterday - both up near a prior swing high.
"Dow closes nearly 200 points higher on better-than-expected GDP report, Nasdaq tumbles"
Yep, except more importantly the Dow closed down from where it opened and formed an ugly Pinbar after a similar looking one yesterday - both up near a prior swing high.
For me it's been the opposite. Only times I've really been consistently profitable (trading) was after forcing myself to do the wave counts. It filters out a lot of impulsive trades.
What time frame do you count Elliot waves on?
I'll go all the way down to 10 minute bars if I need to verify a five wave but it's best to start at monthly and work your way down. For short term trades, however, you can see what you need on the daily.
Yeah, macro bad everyone knows that and I've been using that to my advantage for a while, but since weekly regained I am just not willing to lean into that heavily at the moment. Just a personal choice.
ES Daily support 3777 got tested which is not uncommon, we did go a little below, but we candle closed above it. If we start trading or candle closing below 3777, than I'll be more bearish, until than I am just going to take intra-day trades as they come based on PA, structure and R/R and have no strong bear bias.
Besides with the bigger charts and picture being so bearish, this is exactly how the market would have to trade to move higher. Get weak longs outs, shorts in and everyone looking down. Very much like those days that just keep grinding lower and lower with new lows for hours and than all the sudden you get a huge short rally from all the imbalance. If this is all the upside a weekly regain is going to produce, than we are most likely going to absolutely completely shit the bed with another min 15% down on ES by the time it's all said and done. I totally get that.
ES Daily support 3777 got tested which is not uncommon, we did go a little below, but we candle closed above it. If we start trading or candle closing below 3777, than I'll be more bearish, until than I am just going to take intra-day trades as they come based on PA, structure and R/R and have no strong bear bias.
Besides with the bigger charts and picture being so bearish, this is exactly how the market would have to trade to move higher. Get weak longs outs, shorts in and everyone looking down. Very much like those days that just keep grinding lower and lower with new lows for hours and than all the sudden you get a huge short rally from all the imbalance. If this is all the upside a weekly regain is going to produce, than we are most likely going to absolutely completely shit the bed with another min 15% down on ES by the time it's all said and done. I totally get that.