ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Concinnity]

I think that's an interesting question and one I've been pondering myself lately, but maybe it's worth an own thread and not discussing here? What is consistency? When are you consistent?

Since I started trading again I've had 25 winning days and 10 losing days. 2 of those winning days were green gross, but slightly red after commissions. I've made money 6 out of 8 weeks. One of the weeks was only slightly red while the other one was a larger loss.

My largest losses came from silly and undisciplined trading. Once, I jumped out of bed and started trading the night session. Another time I started trading the morning session before heading to work and barely being awake. I even doubled down on a loss and lost on that one as well. Just stupid really and I got what I deserved.

So, I'd say there is some consistency in my trading, but it's a short sample size and I won't read too much into it. The most important is how much you make when you're right and how little you lose when you're wrong, though. Which is why I don't read too much into % win rate both on a per trade basis or per day basis.

I think that if I can clean up my act and get rid of the undisciplined and un-planned trading I can get really consistent eventually. But I try to stay humble and don't take nothing for granted. It's very easy to lose your balance and mess up as a trader. There is not a great deal of margin for error when trading leveraged instruments. If I can 10x my account - only then will I think I know a thing or two about trading. I have a long way to go...

Seems a fair amount of people enjoy you posting here and you also seem to enjoy it. So, may be in unpopular post here. However, just saying would be very careful and make sure posting here is giving you a net benefit and not holding you back some. This place can be very negative and not a lot of serious traders here or even the few that are serious about it for themselves only, they have no interest about actually having a mutual beneficial relationship, they will just use you for emotional capital or a troll.

Completely understand everyone is different and may not apply to you or others, but when I only use this forum on weekends or my non-trading hours, my trading improves so drastically it's almost unbelievable. Of course not blaming someone else or a forum for any bad trading, just saying that's the facts. Every time I come back and take a week to post and engage here, my trading drops drastically. If I make a post or a trade, I am slower to change my trade or view even if I know it's like invalidated, because I just posted here. So it feels kind of dumb to post one thing, than here I am taking the opposite trade, but that's how the market works sometimes. Things can change in a heartbeat in this market, particularly if you're posting an individual trade.

I know you work and can't really do voice during your trading hours, but people who are serious about trading with others and/or finding a mutually beneficial relationship, will 99% of the time be open to voice communication. Been trading with someone that way recently and it's going really well. In voice you can actually explain things and there's tons of benefit. That value drastically decreases in a slow communication vehicle like a forum.

Again not trying to poop on this thread or anyone here. I do think there's some value to this thread and some good serious traders here. However, doesn't change the facts that it may be effecting you more than you think(I know you're aware of this, just saying keep analyzing it to make sure it's net value to you). Also doesn't change the fact that voice communication is far superior to typing on a forum.

 

[tiddlywinks]

I think that if I can clean up my act and get rid of the undisciplined and un-planned trading I can get really consistent eventually.

Your definition of consistent seems to be rooted in your P/L. IOW, for you, consistency is money based. And for many, money is the primary measure of success.

However, you could flip the script and define consistency based on your application of analysis and execution. The analysis and execution may even be different across trade setup, trade duration expectation, market being traded, overall market environment, and other, perhaps exogenous inputs.

THEN, W/L ratio takes the role not of consistency, but rather probability and statistics... you can be confident in your ability to trade well! And when you trade well, money takes care of itself!! Money all but disappears. How would that change your mindset for entering, maintaining, and exiting a trade?

 

[tiddlywinks]

I went long at the closing today, for a trade that I anticipate will carry us to the 4000 area. I don't follow news and made this decision on technicals, but I imagine that it is possible that the market is starting to realize that Democrats will lose power in both houses in just 2 and a half weeks. The technicals reflect that something is happening that should carry us higher with the weekly now showing upward bias along with the daily. Monthly continues it's negative bent and I look for this lift to eventually be beat down and I will look to short again in the future. I'm long from 3763.00. Mental stop for reevaluation at 3635.

With you being a swing/position trader, given the current market vola, this is one of the most "reasonable" trades, with parameters, that you have posted.

Trade On!

 

[schizo]

Your definition of consistent seems to be rooted in your P/L. IOW, for you, consistency is money based. And for many, money is the primary measure of success.

However, you could flip the script and define consistency based on your application of analysis and execution. The analysis and execution may even be different across trade setup, trade duration expectation, market being traded, overall market environment, and other, perhaps exogenous inputs.

THEN, W/L ratio takes the role not of consistency, but rather probability and statistics... you can be confident in your ability to trade well! And when you trade well, money takes care of itself!! Money all but disappears. How would that change your mindset for entering, maintaining, and exiting a trade?

Great advice.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Since you are good at stats, have you considered only trading high-probability signals based on past performance? This way, you would not be overtrading. I have one such signal which is currently in play. The current signal is not perfect by my definition, but very close to being one, that's the reason I am long, paired with the seasonal expectation of a stock rally as well as many solid stocks trading at a discount and us being in an inflationary environment=higher prices (deflation=lower prices), this one ought to be on the money.

Yes. I've considered it. Maybe even tried to implement it, but as my trading is discretionary and I don't trade a single very specific and isolated pattern, it's not always easy. I'm a little too trigger happy. But I fully agree that filtering out lower probability trades will go a long way. I know one trader who is an expert at staying out of the market and will only participate when something very specific lines up (which I don't know as his method is private).

My biggest issue now which should be easily fixed is to at least not trade when I don't have time or focus to trade. All the big losses I've had since I went live again came from that alone.

Thank you.

Your definition of consistent seems to be rooted in your P/L. IOW, for you, consistency is money based. And for many, money is the primary measure of success.

However, you could flip the script and define consistency based on your application of analysis and execution. The analysis and execution may even be different across trade setup, trade duration expectation, market being traded, overall market environment, and other, perhaps exogenous inputs.

THEN, W/L ratio takes the role not of consistency, but rather probability and statistics... you can be confident in your ability to trade well! And when you trade well, money takes care of itself!! Money all but disappears. How would that change your mindset for entering, maintaining, and exiting a trade?

I agree with Schizo that this is great advice. I will try my best to implement this.

Curious. As a seasoned trader. How consistent are you yourself at this? Do you still get sloppy from time to time or are you able to maintain that kind of focus and consistency day in and day out?

 

[Laissez Faire]

However, just saying would be very careful and make sure posting here is giving you a net benefit and not holding you back some.

If I make a post or a trade, I am slower to change my trade or view even if I know it's like invalidated, because I just posted here. So it feels kind of dumb to post one thing, than here I am taking the opposite trade, but that's how the market works sometimes.

I know you work and can't really do voice during your trading hours, but people who are serious about trading with others and/or finding a mutually beneficial relationship, will 99% of the time be open to voice communication. Been trading with someone that way recently and it's going really well. In voice you can actually explain things and there's tons of benefit. That value drastically decreases in a slow communication vehicle like a forum.

Again not trying to poop on this thread or anyone here. I do think there's some value to this thread and some good serious traders here. However, doesn't change the facts that it may be effecting you more than you think(I know you're aware of this, just saying keep analyzing it to make sure it's net value to you). Also doesn't change the fact that voice communication is far superior to typing on a forum.

You make some fair points. I definitely agree it can be a hindrance. This is why I generally prefer to post analysis or forecasts, but not actual trades. I've been invited to a few discords and voice based rooms, but I've declined them all so far. Would have been easier if I had a consistent schedule, but with my erratic schedule I just prefer to log on here whenever I have the time or desire. I also have my own method, so really mostly focused on executing that.

Trading is a solo sport and it can get lonely at times. ET is the only place I discuss trading ever.

Glad to hear your trading is going well and that you found an arrangement that's working out for you.

Thank you.

 

[tiddlywinks]

Curious. As a seasoned trader. How consistent are you yourself at this? Do you still get sloppy from time to time or are you able to maintain that kind of focus and consistency day in and day out

I am disciplined. Waking is the first task of the day. That does not mean I go to bed and wake up at the same time each day, because I don't! I live in Las Vegas, a 24hr place to conduct my life. By comparison, the RTH trading day is quite limited, and by choice, that is the time I make a living, and a legacy for my loved ones. I think that covers Focus.

The act of trading is routine. From opening the platform to making sure all open positions/orders are cancelled before closing the platform. I trade a fixed account size. Trade size is fixed with exceptions. I get the same signals every day. Signals from less frequent groups of signals appear on some days. I trade all-in, all out. I am flat at EOD (rth). Given all that, it is a simple matter to recognize outliers. "Because" is NOT a reason to take a trade.

And there are more rules... additional trading constraints like no trading the open with an outsized gap (defined per instrument). Yes, last week was a patience pain in the ass for me! Pyramiding allowed when open profit is at least margin requirement. No averaging down. Why the hell would I even be holding a loss that would make averaging down reasonable?... I already fucked up by not correcting sooner!! This sorta kinda segues to a discussion of stops. The most important stop rule I have is... Just because you have a stop in place doesn't mean the stop is the only way out of a losing trade!

I won't drill down further.
I'm human. It took a lot of work to get to the point where being "sloppy" and/or having a losing day or two consecutively is just another (occasional) day in the life. Discipline contains losses, and nearly eliminates catastrophic loss.

Discipline is at the root of consistency.

 

[Concinnity]

You make some fair points. I definitely agree it can be a hindrance. This is why I generally prefer to post analysis or forecasts, but not actual trades. I've been invited to a few discords and voice based rooms, but I've declined them all so far. Would have been easier if I had a consistent schedule, but with my erratic schedule I just prefer to log on here whenever I have the time or desire. I also have my own method, so really mostly focused on executing that.

Trading is a solo sport and it can get lonely at times. ET is the only place I discuss trading ever.

Glad to hear your trading is going well and that you found an arrangement that's working out for you.

Thank you.

I admit I've had my battles back and forth with trading being a solo sport or not. At this time I truly don't believe it is or has to be (obviously not for everyone but in general):

#1 I think a lot of it is a self fulfilling prophecy. Everyone says and thinks it's a solo sport, therefore it must be. So right off the bat people have a negative and close mind to it, which adds an extra layer of difficulty before you even get started.

#2 Most people don't think it through enough to make an arrangement that makes sense for both parties. Therefore it normally breaks down to each man looking out for himself (again because in the back of their mind surely a team effort can't work).

#3 It's complicated and difficult to learn to be profitable in most cases. However the market in general is not that complicated. Once you understand that larger players need to create liquidity to be able to get a net weighted average without pricing themselves out near the lows and vice versa for the highs it becomes a lot more manageable to work together as a team. Some people just have certain niche strategies they do like a machine, nothing wrong with that and I could understand how working with others wouldn't help or even hurt in that case. However, if you trade with a more macro approach and also have set strategies, that's where working together can help. It's really just about figuring out if larger players are buying to sell or are they selling to buy, if you can get an edge or probability on that, than it adds a huge edge to any individual or set strategy you already have by simply trading in that direction aka the "trend".

Anyways I'll see if in the coming months, the team effort I am currently doing is still going this well.

 

[Relentless]

Imo most analysis has little worth- unless it relates to your plan and how to get out with risk management. Execution is everything. When you’re wrong about anticipated daily direction but still make money, that is a good day.

I get your notion but i have to disagree.

Getting rewarded when the markets do something other than what you calculated is dangerous and more harmful then it is good long term. I personally dont care to be rewarded for being wrong. Bad habits and a false sense of "doing this right" can kill you.

 

[Relentless]

Your definition of consistent seems to be rooted in your P/L. IOW, for you, consistency is money based. And for many, money is the primary measure of success.

However, you could flip the script and define consistency based on your application of analysis and execution. The analysis and execution may even be different across trade setup, trade duration expectation, market being traded, overall market environment, and other, perhaps exogenous inputs.

THEN, W/L ratio takes the role not of consistency, but rather probability and statistics... you can be confident in your ability to trade well! And when you trade well, money takes care of itself!! Money all but disappears. How would that change your mindset for entering, maintaining, and exiting a trade?

Probably the best post in the last several pages on this thread.

Several need to read and re-read this. Including me - even being aware of such.