Essentially this goes a little bit to your psychology question. Here are some excerpts from my recent report which explains why I made the mistake and my demeanor in September:
* Uses his self-confidence, energy and charismatic approach to “sell” people on his ideas
and plans
* May rely too much on “gut feelings” and “quick thinking” to guide a presentation rather
than using an analytical and organized approach
* In his focus on the big picture, may miss the details
* Strong results orientation may result in announcing conclusions without patiently
explaining reasons
So in September I let my big picture view and anticipation of a market bottom dictate that view rather than let the indicators signal. But I also acknowledged my mistake and got out of my positions. I get that now.
Thank you for sharing that so freely,
@formikatrading.
Humbly, if I may, I'm afraid you're about to repeat the same mistake as your confidence level seems too high and you're very persistent about wanting to put your view forth. The latter is especially concerning because it makes you very much want to be right. No doubt you want to have some recognition for having called this bottom and take a "See guys? Told you so." in a few weeks.
And that's okay. It's human. I do it to from time to time myself. I like to brag a bit when I get it right. We all want some recognition for what we do I suppose as we're mostly doing this in isolation and our friends and family don't have one idea about what we're doing.
But like I wrote earlier in this journal I think putting a view forth very strongly is dangerous because it makes you more concerned about being right than about making money.
We all trade differently, but the way I approach trading is that I tend to forecast/predict and have an idea about what my main scenario is moving forward (be that a few hours or a week ahead), but I also have an idea about where I'm wrong and where my main scenario was violated and where it's time to either go neutral or reverse course. As I receive more data as the day/week progresses, I can update my model and make updated views, i.e., are we confirming or negating the main scenario...?
I did this in an exemplary way live last Wednesday where I was initially long and stopped out thrice, but updated statistical data told me we had a big move lower in play. I recognized it and reversed course. I'm bragging about this part because in the past and many times I didn't even share it here I have come very locked down in my main scenario and have defended it even to myself not accepting I was wrong. For example continuing to go long even when the market is falling and it was clear I messed up.
That's why I'm asking you and the other bulls on this thread to thread carefully and maybe consider putting in a protective stop and if you feel like it maybe share where you would consider yourself wrong from here? I think it would do you a world of good and help your trading and prevent further losses. In my view, this is a dangerous environment where it's so easy to lose money and one where I think it's very good to recognize and respect both sides.
There's nothing I'd like more than everyone here to make a sh't ton of money and if up is the way we're going from here I'm going to participate that direction myself. 10 short trades last week and 40 long trades.
