Still waiting for a real flush before getting long into year end.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
So are a lot of others. I could be wrong, but whenever I hear things about the market has to go to a lower level and that is the prevailing view, then I usually just have to hold my nose and buy. It's happened to me too many times where I was left standing on the sidelines of a major move. I'm playing this as the low for the year is in. I could be wrong but too many things have lined up for me and to not be positioned that way is not to trust my analysis.
next rate hike is important, after that it will have a holiday rally regardless.
All good. Gotta stick to what you know.
Im good with being a little late if im wrong relative to where i expect things to go into year end.
You were super bullish on the 12th of September as well and multiple times on the way down as we fell 600 points. Just saying...
If (do we know?) today's reversal was triggered by a rumor, I believe any rumor or confirmation of the opposite will reverse this just as quickly.
Bear markets are known for strong counter moves, so I wouldn't read too much into this just yet.
The most interesting thing for me would be to know your position and where you would consider yourself wrong. What needs to happen next week to invalidate your hypothesis that we put in a bottom?
Can we retrace half of this week's range? Half of last week's range? All the way down to the year low for a stop run or a double bottom?
We all trade differently, but when I put on a trade or a forecast, I have a vision of what I expect to happen and where I consider myself wrong.
I'm super happy that the bulls survived this week, but why not put in a protective stop here? At least have an uncle point and don't let this go all the way back to zero.
With all due respect, you keep judging me based on my mistake back then -- which I admitted. It seems because of that, any analysis I set forth now is viewed with skepticism. Maybe I'm wrong this time too, but this time I have analysis, and not hope, behind it.
You were super bullish on the 12th of September as well and multiple times on the way down as we fell 600 points. Just saying...
Quite the volatile session today. Plenty of > 10 point 5-minute bars. How did guys make out?
I had to sit this one out. In hindsight, this looks like a session where one could quickly rack up losses even if being on the right side of the market, but not catching the exact entry.
I had to sit this one out. In hindsight, this looks like a session where one could quickly rack up losses even if being on the right side of the market, but not catching the exact entry.
Well, you came across quite condescending early September when a few of us were suspicious on that rally and you said we needed 4D analysis to really understand what was going on. Implying that you had something superior in your hands while we were left in the dark. So, maybe I'm giving you an extra hard time because of that.
As for the analysis, it's natural with a little skepticism as you've been proven wrong initially, but maybe you'll nail it down now.
That's why I'm asking you where you would consider yourself wrong moving forward? How much lower can we go and you're still bullish? I think that would make the forecast more interesting.
It would also be interesting to know how much higher you think we can go from here until year end?
Thank you.
It could only happen, IMHO, if we get a black swan. So far this has been nothing more than a discounting event, orderly decline, nothing like when C19 struck.
Essentially this goes a little bit to your psychology question. Here are some excerpts from my recent report which explains why I made the mistake and my demeanor in September:
* Uses his self-confidence, energy and charismatic approach to “sell” people on his ideas
and plans
* May rely too much on “gut feelings” and “quick thinking” to guide a presentation rather
than using an analytical and organized approach
* In his focus on the big picture, may miss the details
* Strong results orientation may result in announcing conclusions without patiently
explaining reasons
So in September I let my big picture view and anticipation of a market bottom dictate that view rather than let the indicators signal. But I also acknowledged my mistake and got out of my positions. I get that now.
* Uses his self-confidence, energy and charismatic approach to “sell” people on his ideas
and plans
* May rely too much on “gut feelings” and “quick thinking” to guide a presentation rather
than using an analytical and organized approach
* In his focus on the big picture, may miss the details
* Strong results orientation may result in announcing conclusions without patiently
explaining reasons
So in September I let my big picture view and anticipation of a market bottom dictate that view rather than let the indicators signal. But I also acknowledged my mistake and got out of my positions. I get that now.
Well, you came across quite condescending early September when a few of us were suspicious on that rally and you said we needed 4D analysis to really understand what was going on. Implying that you had something superior in your hands while we were left in the dark. So, maybe I'm giving you an extra hard time because of that.
As for the analysis, it's natural with a little skepticism as you've been proven wrong initially, but maybe you'll nail it down now.
That's why I'm asking you where you would consider yourself wrong moving forward? How much lower can we go and you're still bullish? I think that would make the forecast more interesting.
It would also be interesting to know how much higher you think we can go from here until year end?
Thank you.