ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

But some buses are face rippers!

How do you it's going to be a face ripper, though?

It's a game of probabilities. Let's say only 1 out of 10 days or weeks is a face-ripper. Or 1 out of 10 globex gap up opens are runaway gaps.

If you chase an entry on those other 9 days it probably won't help you much if finally get a face ripper as it pays for your previous losses where you chased.

 

[SunTrader]

View attachment 297685

Then there is also this for squiggly fans:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582081295118540800

 

[Laissez Faire]

Scalping the long side all morning while working from home. Always money to be made in this market even if you're late.

When I speak about chasing, I'm generally talking about bigger moves and bigger stops.

If I'm around at the computer and can monitor what's going on I don't mind chasing. Just don't want to go to bed or away from the computer with a wide stop on a chase entry.

 

[formikatrading]

You may disagree but the probabilities favored this being a face ripper, particularly with cycles and seasonal tendencies coming together. Look I got bullish way too early -- just based on sentiment - and I admit I was wrong -- I anticipated. But this time everything started lining up -- sentiment, cycles, technicals, etc.

How do you it's going to be a face ripper, though?

It's a game of probabilities. Let's say only 1 out of 10 days or weeks is a face-ripper. Or 1 out of 10 globex gap up opens are runaway gaps.

If you chase an entry on those other 9 days it probably won't help you much if finally get a face ripper as it pays for your previous losses where you chased.

 

[Laissez Faire]

You may disagree but the probabilities favored this being a face ripper, particularly with cycles and seasonal tendencies coming together. Look I got bullish way too early -- just based on sentiment - and I admit I was wrong -- I anticipated. But this time everything started lining up -- sentiment, cycles, technicals, etc.

No, I don't disagree that we might rally out of this zone and I said so on Sunday, actually.

My only concern as a trader is being on the right side of the market or on the sidelines when I don't know what's going on (or if I missed the bus).

I'm not sure if there's any value in calling tops or bottoms. If anything, I imagine it may be a hindrance for a trader. Best to stay loose and flexible. Especially in this market.

Putting forth a view strongly, i.e., "This is a face ripper" or "This is the big one" (you said something to that effect on the prior top in September) only makes you want to defend that view and you may very well end up ignoring the evidence that you're wrong or that the move to the upside is complete.

IMHO.

 

[Laissez Faire]

It sure is a ripper, though.

 

[SunTrader]

10yr yield at LOD (and looks lower) so far which bodes well for equities continuing to rise.

 

[SunTrader]

Meanwhile something else to watch - CL is @ LOD $84.10 (looking lower) which is not bullish for stocks.

Although projected low I have is $84.16

 

[Laissez Faire]

Plenty of bagholders up here. Need a pullback to 3725 or so before I'm touching this.

 

[Laissez Faire]

3730 may be sufficient, though. Could still go all the way to yesterday's Close. Have to see what price does when we get there.

Biding my time here and getting ready to buy from those who bought the top.