ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

If many more traders lose than win (can we agree to this?), money ultimately flows from the many to the few. Therefore the crowd is usually wrong and they tend to have the most conviction at the turning points, from my own observations. And I've been in that crowd many times..... Have you noticed this?

I suppose so, yes.

My point was merely that it's not the market that's doing the f''king. It's the players themselves who f''k themselves up by playing in the first place. The market is only a neutral facility which facilitates trading.

Losing money in the market is a personal choice.

PS: Yes, I've noticed. I tend to pay attention when the chatter gets too bullish or too bearish. I think the last time was around the 12th of September when I said people all of a sudden seemed too bullish and the reply I got was that it was hard to be too bullish right now.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Inside Weeks are rare. We only had 1 so far this year out of 41 weeks, i.e., 2,5 %.

If those statistics means anything what we can infer from that is that there's a 97,5 % chance we'll either trade above 3725,25 or below 3502 by the end of next week. Or both, i.e., an Outside Week (we had 6 of those so far this year).

So, just by that you can have an idea of what to expect for the week ahead. 50/50 at this point, but that's where further refinement and supporting parameters can come into play and help improve the odds one way or the other.

No need to predict anything yet, though. Just at a glance it's easy to see that this 3590/3600 level is a level of major interest. Maybe we can rally out of this zone. Maybe not. Maybe we'll see some more choppy moves as bigger players are placing bets here and battling it out.

Friday retracted 50 % of Thursdays' move and ended up right back at that 3600 level. Surely not the face ripping rally many was hoping for, but there's still hope I suppose.

I showed the SPX daily/weekly/monthly charts to my girlfriend and she thinks we're headed lower still. So, there's that...

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Inside Weeks are rare. We only had 1 so far this year out of 41 weeks, i.e., 2,5 %.

If those statistics means anything what we can infer from that is that there's a 97,5 % chance we'll either trade above 3725,25 or below 3502 by the end of next week. Or both, i.e., an Outside Week (we had 6 of those so far this year).

So, just by that you can have an idea of what to expect for the week ahead. 50/50 at this point, but that's where further refinement and supporting parameters can come into play and help improve the odds one way or the other.

No need to predict anything yet, though. Just at a glance it's easy to see that this 3590/3600 level is a level of major interest. Maybe we can rally out of this zone. Maybe not. Maybe we'll see some more choppy moves as bigger players are placing bets here and battling it out.

Friday retracted 50 % of Thursdays' move and ended up right back at that 3600 level. Surely not the face ripping rally many was hoping for, but there's still hope I suppose.

I showed the SPX daily/weekly/monthly charts to my girlfriend and she thinks we're headed lower still. So, there's that...

Based on historical patterns, the probability for up this week is higher than 50 percent. The key is not to lose too much when wrong.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Inside Weeks are rare. We only had 1 so far this year out of 41 weeks, i.e., 2,5 %.

If those statistics means anything what we can infer from that is that there's a 97,5 % chance we'll either trade above 3725,25 or below 3502 by the end of next week. Or both, i.e., an Outside Week (we had 6 of those so far this year).

So, just by that you can have an idea of what to expect for the week ahead. 50/50 at this point, but that's where further refinement and supporting parameters can come into play and help improve the odds one way or the other.

No need to predict anything yet, though. Just at a glance it's easy to see that this 3590/3600 level is a level of major interest. Maybe we can rally out of this zone. Maybe not. Maybe we'll see some more choppy moves as bigger players are placing bets here and battling it out.

Friday retracted 50 % of Thursdays' move and ended up right back at that 3600 level. Surely not the face ripping rally many was hoping for, but there's still hope I suppose.

I showed the SPX daily/weekly/monthly charts to my girlfriend and she thinks we're headed lower still. So, there's that...

Did we have an inside week? I don't see that on my charts.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Did we have an inside week? I don't see that on my charts.

No. I said we only had one so far this year...

In the beginning of July.

 

[sidbunch]

lets see what this week brings. I'm still holding that short. I feel like the way we gave them gains back means that maybe there's more downside to come next week

 

[SunTrader]

I'm thinking on a daily and higher we get a corrective advance Monday or Tuesday latest. Shocking right? For me.

PA determines it obviously so whichever way things move I will trade it.

 

[schizo]

My point was merely that it's not the market that's doing the f''king. It's the players themselves who f''k themselves up by playing in the first place. The market is only a neutral facility which facilitates trading.

I wonder where I've heard that non sequitur before.

Oh, yeah, it's not the gun that actually kills but those who use the guns. Likewise, it ain't Hollywood that fucks the mind of vulnerable children who are prone to violence but it's actually the other way around. Kids are drawn to violent movies because they are predisposed to violence to begin with.

 

[schizo]

So, just by that you can have an idea of what to expect for the week ahead. 50/50 at this point, but that's where further refinement and supporting parameters can come into play and help improve the odds one way or the other.

But you say that in all your posts.

 

[schizo]

The market is only a neutral facility which facilitates trading.

Losing money in the market is a personal choice.

Speaking of neutrality, I know for a fact CME is not neutral. Back when I first started trading, the floor traders were the gorillas. With the advent of Internet, they faced their extinction. And CME did their best to make that happen. Now they're floating the idea (and have since filed with CFTC) that they want to become an actual broker like Bitcoin exchanges. What the fvck is wrong with them? They've already gobbled up all their competitors and, not to mention, raised the fees so much over the years. What more do they want? Pay for order fees?