Just looking at things, the S&P has only been 13% below its 200 dma about 4 times since 2003
Once was on 5/12 this year. Obviously it dropped to about 17% below by 6/16.
Other than that, every time it was 13% below, it went way lower.
We're about 13% below now. Others were covid 2020 (short lived) 2016, 2008
I think I said earlier in the thread that this market can turn on a dime and that is still my view. As such, I don't try to hold too strong opinions about medium/long-term direction in this environment.