ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

Wuuut

Surprised?

 

[mervyn]

booked 20 points red, let's see if i can make it back in the afternoon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/con...pending-expectations-show-sharp-decline-.html

 

[c1rcle]

Why oh why does anyone even look or go long in this trading environment?

I think a lot of people who participate in the markets don't even know how to go short or feel that going short is immoral. Not an answer to your question, but just something I have thought about.

 

[schizo]

In case I forget or just feeling too damn lazy to post

PT 3644 (that would be +35)

Don't you hate it when you get the direction right but your timing is way off? Yeah, exactly.

 

[DevBru]

Why oh why does anyone even look or go long in this trading environment?

It's funny that you posted that right as ES printed it's low of day and is now 70 points up .

But overall you are right, dangerous conditions to commit to a long position.

 

[sidbunch]

short here at 24.75
16 point stop

-16

 

[schizo]

Sell the rumor, buy the news.

What if...

...last time that CPI report was front-runned because major players were anticipating it would be good?

What if...

...this time the CPI report is front-runned with major players anticipating it will be sh't?

So what's your conclusion, now with this big bounce?

 

[SunTrader]

It's funny that you posted that right as ES printed it's low of day and is now 70 points up .

But overall you are right, dangerous conditions to commit to a long position.

The real money is made going with the trend. IMO spending time waiting for a counter-trend move is counter-productive. Less points available, more likely to be shaken out. Many talk about short-covering rallies ripping your face off while forgetting the real face ripping is being done by the shorts. Otherwise, its obvious, this wouldn't be a bear market we are in.

 

[Laissez Faire]

So what's your conclusion, now with this big bounce?

I think I said earlier in the thread that this market can turn on a dime and that is still my view. As such, I don't try to hold too strong opinions about medium/long-term direction in this environment. We have some numbers coming up tomorrow and Thursday which is likely to reverse this very quickly if they fall short of expectations.

I knew going into this session that it would likely be a tricky play and I also cautioned that someone might be trying to put in a double bottom in this area. Turns out I was right.

I still traded it poorly, though. My last trade was a long that was virtually stopped out on the low tick. Having used a bit too wide stops the last few days I decided I wanted to tighten up that last trade a bit and I missed this entire run up.

It's been two humbling days for me. Gave back a lot of gains. And confidence...

 

[vanzandt]

Here comes the reversal, on the Fed news out of NY.
readjusted inflation outlook for 2023 by .3

That worked for a nice pop. Now will it hold?