ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

So you posted this ... even though you realized he was paper trading?

"26 trades over a few hours? I'm sure you're overtrading your account with this kind of approach."

Ever heard of a paper trading account? Schizo posted at least twice it was paper trading, so I was well aware.

My comment was geared towards the actual approach, i.e., scalping and posting fast trades at the same time. Paper or real money wasn't a consideration.

 

[schizo]

26 trades over a few hours? I'm sure you're overtrading your account with this kind of approach. Also, I'm not sure it would be beneficial to post these trades in a journal as this is essentially a scalping approach where you need to be very quick. Posting trades is a distraction.

For scalping ES, I have automated strategies which submit a limit order, say 1,5/3,0 points from my fill price and will trail a B/E stop or B/E + 1 tick automatically without me doing a thing. Often, I'm filled for a profit in seconds after my entry. There's no time to fiddle around with orders. For now, I'm mostly not scalping, but will take the occasional scalp.

Your best trades seems to be your longer holds if I'm not mistaken. With the cost of trading factored in I'm sure it's a much better approach.

Or what say you?

Thanks for the suggestions. But no worries. This was a test run of the algo I've been tinkering with lately. It's designed as HFT, so it's not surprising that it churns a lot of trades and, as an algo, it enters/exits trades automatically.

Of course, when I trade discretionary, I would not trade like this. But for an algo, I'll go with whatever strategy that makes me money.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Monday and Tuesday needs to reverse this - if not: watch out below.

3 weeks down in a row. Statistically, on that basis alone, there's a skew to the upside with a few of them being 'biggies', but it's not a big edge. We can just as easily see a biggie to the down side this week.

I may stick around at the Globex Open and see if there's a spike to sell into, but it's not impossible we'll open with a gap down tonight and I don't think I'll be chasing that?

It's interesting how the year low was defended all week long, but collapsed into the Close on Friday. Makes you wonder...

 

[Laissez Faire]

The last 15 negative weeks had an average low % change reading at ~ 4 %.

If we use that as a target we'll see 3450 by end of next week. Using a conservative measure at ~ 2 % down, we'll see 3500.

Basically, I'll be watching for continuation lower or a reversal where Monday and Tuesday can find a bid and trade back inside last week's range.

Sounds like a coin flip and it may very well be at this point, but that's where watching the market live and carefully seeing what the market is telling you comes into play...

 

[Relentless]

Monday and Tuesday needs to reverse this - if not: watch out below.

3 weeks down in a row. Statistically, on that basis alone, there's a skew to the upside with a few of them being 'biggies', but it's not a big edge. We can just as easily see a biggie to the down side this week.

I may stick around at the Globex Open and see if there's a spike to sell into, but it's not impossible we'll open with a gap down tonight and I don't think I'll be chasing that?

It's interesting how the year low was defended all week long, but collapsed into the Close on Friday. Makes you wonder...

The last 15 negative weeks had an average low % change reading at ~ 4 %.

If we use that as a target we'll see 3450 by end of next week. Using a conservative measure at ~ 2 % down, we'll see 3500.

Basically, I'll be watching for continuation lower or a reversal where Monday and Tuesday can find a bid and trade back inside last week's range.

Sounds like a coin flip and it may very well be at this point, but that's where watching the market live and carefully seeing what the market is telling you comes into play...

Obviously i typically just do cooler talk but just wanted to say i think your writeups here are the best bar none. Probably because i prefer observations based on hard data / stats (that of which you are always on top of).

That isnt to knock anyone else here. Some bright minds and contributions for sure. Appreciate all of the insights even if i dont agree with some.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Thank you, @Relentless. I often feel I'm spamming these boards, but as I usually do my homework on a Sunday night I tend to want to share it.

Regarding statistical data - I do once in a while get very high probability outcomes one way or the other, but surprisingly often it's more like a coin flip. I think that's information too. We're now at a juncture where everyone is expecting a bloodbath it seems, so it's always nice to be prepared for the other outcome as well.

 

[Laissez Faire]

On the 12th of September the bullish sentiment seemed very strong across the board and very much so in this journal. That marked out a medium term top it seems.

One of the things I've noticed is that the markets always seems strongest at a top. And maybe also weakest near a bottom?

That's not a bottom call as I think that's way premature, but what do I know...

 

[schizo]

Thank you, @Relentless. I often feel I'm spamming these boards, but as I usually do my homework on a Sunday night I tend to want to share it.

Regarding statistical data - I do once in a while get very high probability outcomes one way or the other, but surprisingly often it's more like a coin flip. I think that's information too. We're now at a juncture where everyone is expecting a bloodbath it seems, so it's always nice to be prepared for the other outcome as well.

I agree with @Relentless. No one's complaining of your spamming. Keep going.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Just stopped out for a tick profit at 95,25 on a short. About to hit the sack and don't want to risk a move against me. Don't think I'll enter another one just yet.

If I were around to monitor I would be looking to enter short here on a pop. Maybe a Globex gap fill at 04.25.

Getting there now. Might get another shot before hitting the sack.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Gap filled.

Shorted 03.25 with a 5 point stop. Will quickly B/E if I get the chance.