ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

Sold the breakout. Not in the mood to hold overnight being this far down range on the daily.

Serious moves today, congrats if you survived it!

Holding into the report and trading the following minutes seems like gambling to me, but I'm sure there's some who can navigate it.

After the initial rally which made a new HOD failed and we dropped below yesterday's Close it seemed evident that we'd go lower. I had actually shut down my live account, but logged back on to take one final short when we made a new LOD the 2nd time.

I decided to trail out with a profit because I don't want to use a 15-20 point stop which seems is what's needed in this volatility.

Sucks to see the market hit my "predicted" target now of course, but that's the difference between trading with real money and simulator/calling.

 

[schizo]

That is JayP's point. To make as many people unhappy as he can.

I personally don't buy that. Before he went on the 75bps crusade, Powell received a lot of flack from other hawkish economists that he should be raising it by 75. The dude simply don't have the balls to get the job done, without first being challenged by the institution (politically or academically). Once Wall Street comes down on him hard, he's gonna retreat.

 

[Wide Tailz]

I trust flags, if you haven't noticed by now.

They actually look like windsocks. Cleared for takeoff!

 

[Laissez Faire]

This is the chart I posted on Sunday where I referenced that I would watch for either a failure or acceptance above that 3900 level. It turned out to be a failure and reversal off that level.

We just hit the first target to the downside. Here's an updated chart (with a few lines removed):

We almost filled that gap today on SPX.

The next one below is 3675. We can easily see that by week end.

I'm not predicting anything here. Just seeing likely targets and trajectories.

 

[SunTrader]

I personally don't buy that. Before he went on the 75bps crusade, Powell received a lot of flack from other hawkish economists that he should be raising it by 75. The dude simply don't have the balls to get the job done, without first being challenged by the institution (politically or academically). Once Wall Street comes down on him hard, he's gonna retreat.

After Jackson Hole I doubt no more his determination to do something about inflation. Whether or not it does anything it'll be at least 6 months if not year or more till we find out.

 

[p0box4]

Took a few small scalps just to print a green day after yesterday's sillyness. The last one being a late short as we made new lows, but didn't want to risk a 20 point counter move, so stopped out for 5 points.

Headed lower, though. But the path might be rocky. If I were short from higher prices I would feel very confident now.

View attachment 295687

Refreshing to see someone posting actual PnL instead of just saying i made X points every single day.

Looking at some posters you would think they have 0 losing days and they should be a multi millionaire by now.

 

[Poljot]

Price has been moving up minutes before announcement, which for me is a sign to go short, which I did with options this time, and it happened the same during the last CPI drop.
I do not have any statistics on this though, might someone have enough historical data to do the analysis, that would be interesting.
Might be as well a random market behavior without any stat. significance.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Refreshing to see someone posting actual PnL instead of just saying i made X points every single day.

Looking at some posters you would think they have 0 losing days and they should be a multi millionaire by now.

I hope you didn't miss my losing day yesterday. Ended my 15 day streak with a biggie yesterday. Thankfully, I had a few biggies to the upside, too. So no major damage, but still humbling.

 

[schizo]

Refreshing to see someone posting actual PnL instead of just saying i made X points every single day.

Looking at some posters you would think they have 0 losing days and they should be a multi millionaire by now.

Frankly, I would much prefer to see his trade history (entries and exits). Other than how much he made, PnL doesn't tell me anything. I want to understand his process. I won't ask anyone to post their trades in real time, but you should provide entries/exits if posting after-the-fact.

 

[mervyn]

We had not posting argument last year. I am good at what I summarized, no point of making things up as we are regulars here.

I recall there is another post, trading is a game of solitude, you make it or you don’t, others opinions don’t matter. If you run out of money, you don’t stick around on internet.