ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

This is a powerhouse of a bullish setup on a larger time frame (like a 95 point range chart for example). And we barely moved up today and just tagged the bottom EMA on that chart. In other words barely got the minimal expected move. We're still in that setup now so it has a chance to produce more upside. Going to go completely flat here and see how this plays out overnight.

Something is definitely going on here, not that it isn't obvious to the others. But being 3:43 and given positioning of the candle, it isn't likely to update before I am done trading. So, not really much tradable information here for me, just find it interesting.

This 3900 zone is definitely a zone of big interest. You can't rule out a rally coming out of this base for a 2nd time.

I'm thinking it won't, but I'm not married to that view. I seriously have no idea what's going to happen. Just an idea of what might happen. And that might be enough to put some money into my pocket.

Anyway. Enough talk / spam / noise. Signing off.

PS: Friday is triple witching day. I wonder how that may influence the end of week action.

 

[newbie463]

This 3900 zone is definitely a zone of big interest. You can't rule out a rally coming out of this base for a 2nd time.

I'm thinking it won't, but I'm not married to that view. I seriously have no idea what's going to happen. Just an idea of what might happen. And that might be enough to put some money into my pocket.

Anyway. Enough talk / spam / noise. Signing off.

PS: Friday is triple witching day. I wonder how that may influence the end of week action.

maybe they pin it at 3900 and leave us wondering over the weekend?????????

 

[formikatrading]

So everyone become almost universally bearish after yesterday. Just seems like that is too obvious. Still have some challenging seasonality here but I think things should look a lot worse if we were getting ready to go into free fall.

This is a powerhouse of a bullish setup on a larger time frame (like a 95 point range chart for example). And we barely moved up today and just tagged the bottom EMA on that chart. In other words barely got the minimal expected move. We're still in that setup now so it has a chance to produce more upside. Going to go completely flat here and see how this plays out overnight.

Something is definitely going on here, not that it isn't obvious to the others. But being 3:43 and given positioning of the candle, it isn't likely to update before I am done trading. So, not really much tradable information here for me, just find it interesting.

 

[Master Pu]

So everyone become almost universally bearish after yesterday. Just seems like that is too obvious. Still have some challenging seasonality here but I think things should look a lot worse if we were getting ready to go into free fall.

not me, not you from the sounds of it, not B1S2, others trade shorter time frames I think.

 

[Master Pu]

Nice chart.

By weekly trend, I assume one means either the trend on the weekly chart or the short term trend for the week, i.e., the weekly cycle.

In my view, any trend higher short term was invalidated by yesterday's action.

I've seen @Buy1Sell2 do this before, i.e., change his market view and then be stubborn when it seems he was too early or wrong.

Here's my weekly chart. I fail to see any up trend in effect here, but it may be a matter of interpretation.

Keep in mind that @Buy1Sell2 was bearish as late as a few days ago. What changed that view is a mystery to me.

View attachment 295088

If you look at the previous uptrend, at what point did you consider it being broken to the downside? And at which point afterward did you consider it becoming a downtrend?

 

[Concinnity]

So everyone become almost universally bearish after yesterday. Just seems like that is too obvious. Still have some challenging seasonality here but I think things should look a lot worse if we were getting ready to go into free fall.

Yeah, to be fair though I have seen quite a few people in other places and rooms, still looking and wanting to buy. In the end though I go with what I am seeing on the charts.

Think about this though - we actually have two types of desperate traders essentially.

#1 We have a lot of longs trapped and some of them trapped much higher.

#2 No ones knows this for 100% sure, but it's reasonable enough to assume we have aggressive shorter term and longer term shorts here.

Overall I am very macro bearish. Not to beat a dead horse but this is building to look like 2007/2008 right before we have the actual massive move down.

To finish up though and expanding on #1 and #2 we essentially get price action like we had today. Bearish acting, with quick explosive spikes up. So, if you're using people being overly aggressive or over loaded to the short side as a short term long scenario, I don't necessarily have an issue or disagree.

Do not think that's a very strong case at all for a longer term bull scenario, nor would shorts alone be enough to counter act selling from larger players other than holding up the market short term.


This of course is just my analysis and how I see it.

 

[formikatrading]

This is crazy -- the Daily and Hourly charts are almost identical for the S&P500:

 

[Monobrowtrading]

Yeah, to be fair though I have seen quite a few people in other places and rooms, still looking and wanting to buy. In the end though I go with what I am seeing on the charts.

Think about this though - we actually have two types of desperate traders essentially.

#1 We have a lot of longs trapped and some of them trapped much higher.

#2 No ones knows this for 100% sure, but it's reasonable enough to assume we have aggressive shorter term and longer term shorts here.

Overall I am very macro bearish. Not to beat a dead horse but this is building to look like 2007/2008 right before we have the actual massive move down.

To finish up though and expanding on #1 and #2 we essentially get price action like we had today. Bearish acting, with quick explosive spikes up. So, if you're using people being overly aggressive or over loaded to the short side as a short term long scenario, I don't necessarily have an issue or disagree.

Do not think that's a very strong case at all for a longer term bull scenario, nor would shorts alone be enough to counter act selling from larger players other than holding up the market short term.


This of course is just my analysis and how I see it.

Hurry up and blow-up your account already so we don’t have to listen to your schizophrenic analysis and the same goes for Laissey fairey.

 

[MacBookProHo]

Hurry up and blow-up your account already so we don’t have to listen to your schizophrenic analysis and the same goes for Laissey fairey.

That's a horrible message and energy and vibes and karma to spread,
You should say something very inspirational and moving and intelligent and profound....like.....Make a Million in the Market, Magician

 

[SunTrader]

Hurry up and blow-up your account already so we don’t have to listen to your schizophrenic analysis and the same goes for Laissey fairey.

You don't have to listen to them. Unfollow the topic. We'll be fine without ya.