ES Journal - 2021/2022

[Laissez Faire]

I think he means that.

Nice chart.

By weekly trend, I assume one means either the trend on the weekly chart or the short term trend for the week, i.e., the weekly cycle.

In my view, any trend higher short term was invalidated by yesterday's action.

I've seen @Buy1Sell2 do this before, i.e., change his market view and then be stubborn when it seems he was too early or wrong.

Here's my weekly chart. I fail to see any up trend in effect here, but it may be a matter of interpretation.

Keep in mind that @Buy1Sell2 was bearish as late as a few days ago. What changed that view is a mystery to me.

 

[Concinnity]

Yeah kind of expecting and looking for lows to be tested and broken on both ES and NQ. I don't see why they would let people buy here and hold with a stop below the lows and take market much higher.

Can't imagine any serious players are accumulating here. So, wouldn't make sense to move much higher prior to low break. Could be so many aggressive shorts that trade is over crowded so it doesn't happen today, PA looks like and acting like a lot of covering going on. But still holding a small short (1 MNQ)

EDIT: It is after 3:00 and 3:30 already.... some of my worst trades looking back are being short after 3:00 and particularly 3:30. So, actually don't like it quite as much given this information. Will just play it by ear.

There we go, got it. Nice view Laissez I covered here 12110.25. Not the best cover ever kind of panic'ed out on the up move for no reason. But ended up profitable on the day now.

 

[Concinnity]

Actually, now this is a potential long setup, but already missed entry and was focused on my short position.

 

[schizo]

Here's my weekly chart. I fail to see any up trend in effect here, but it may be a matter of interpretation.

Looking at your chart, we're still well above pre-Covid. WTF is everyone crying about!

 

[Concinnity]

Looking at your chart, we're still well above pre-Covid. WTF is everyone crying about!

Yeah shouldn't be crying about the current move down, I agree not that bad. It's the future down moves that have high probability of coming that will be the real reason to cry.

The reason I am concerned about longer term view, specifically is because if you compare the Weekly chart of 2007/2008 vs 2020 Covid and than lastly against 2021/2022 . You can see a very clear pattern and similarity between 2008 and 2022. Both setting up consistent and intentional selling.

 

[c1rcle]

Nice chart.

By weekly trend, I assume one means either the trend on the weekly chart or the short term trend for the week, i.e., the weekly cycle.

In my view, any trend higher short term was invalidated by yesterday's action.

I've seen @Buy1Sell2 do this before, i.e., change his market view and then be stubborn when it seems he was too early or wrong.

Here's my weekly chart. I fail to see any up trend in effect here, but it may be a matter of interpretation.

Keep in mind that @Buy1Sell2 was bearish as late as a few days ago. What changed that view is a mystery to me.

View attachment 295088

Its that inverse head and shoulders that makes me think long, but still in the short camp for now.

 

[schizo]

The reason I am concerned about longer term view, specifically is because if you compare the Weekly chart of 2007/2008 vs 2020 Covid and than lastly against 2021/2022 . You can see a very clear pattern and similarity between 2008 and 2022. Both setting up consistent and intentional selling.

Back in 2008, ES tumbled 58%. If we were to drop 58% today, that would put us at 2022. Frankly, I don't think many people could handles 58% loss these days. People were actually pretty tough-minded and resilient back in 2008. These days, the market is full of pussies.

 

[Laissez Faire]

A few weeks ago people seemed "too bearish". Now, people seem "too bullish".

Should be interesting to see how this and next week plays out.

I posted this by start of this week and it generated some interesting replies. Some saying it was hard to be too bullish now.

What I meant is that it's interesting to observe the chatter after a strong week down and the chatter after a strong week up. Seems like people get very emotional about prices short term. When it's going up it seems like that's the only possible direction and bulls get very confident. I think greed is the dominating emotion. Same thing when the market's tanking and the bears are confident the market will crash. I think fear is the dominating emotion then.

I'm not a big bear or anything, but there doesn't seem to be much supporting a sustained rally for the foreseeable future. But I may easily be wrong...

 

[Concinnity]

This is a powerhouse of a bullish setup on a larger time frame (like a 95 point range chart for example). And we barely moved up today and just tagged the bottom EMA on that chart. In other words barely got the minimal expected move. We're still in that setup now so it has a chance to produce more upside. Going to go completely flat here and see how this plays out overnight.

Something is definitely going on here, not that it isn't obvious to the others. But being 3:43 and given positioning of the candle, it isn't likely to update before I am done trading. So, not really much tradable information here for me, just find it interesting.

 

[schizo]

Short 46.75