ES Journal - 2021/2022

Long 100 SQQQ in anticipation of the break of this flag. Yesterday's action invalidated one of the bullish wave counts that had been possible, resolving the past month's question of if we had been starting a new up trend with five waves up.

TL/DR: it's the chop before the drop, all last month, but it's likely we get another move up after making a local new low, for MAXIMUM PAIN
 

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Concinnity said:
Trying to hold through the dips, very high probability we go to target. But I am likely taking no more longs if and when we get there, I just see this some what rare setup here. This would be like 99% chance any other day, given macro environment still makes me hesitant this might fail. No real hard stop, so could be bad loss (relative to me) if it doesn't work.
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Well it did go up some and I took profit on some and than I got greedy and decided to hold to full target with no hard stop, so classic clown move. So goes without saying i took a nice loss on my long. Literally was only looking short today due to macro environment and per my rules I shouldn't of been taking any medium to long term longs, but I really did like the setup and decided to take it so paid the price.

I did end up flipping short... and pending this trade could still end up on the day. But wasn't any critical damage done. Still don't know what to say, I broke a rule and admitted to having no hard stop (which is not how I trade or at least suppose to be trading at all).
 
schizo said:
Probably not. I would think everyone needs a breather today.
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The market closed down 4.34 % yesterday and we couldn't even retrace half of yesterday's RTH range today. Much less hold the prior day close.

That's some weak sh*t to me.

I'm not trading it as I want to keep what I earned for today, but a sizeable drop by the close seems very likely to me.

If we take out the LOD I may decide to participate, but it could get messy (read: wicked counter moves).
 
NQ components are holding up a bit better, though. Holding yesterday's close and putting in a higher low on this last leg down.

Maybe there's hope for a green close after all...

A lot can happen in an hour.
 
Laissez Faire said:
The market closed down 4.34 % yesterday and we couldn't even retrace half of yesterday's RTH range today. Much less hold the prior day close.

That's some weak sh*t to me.

I'm not trading it as I want to keep what I earned for today, but a sizeable drop by the close seems very likely to me.

If we take out the LOD I may decide to participate, but it could get messy (read: wicked counter moves).
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Yeah kind of expecting and looking for lows to be tested and broken on both ES and NQ. I don't see why they would let people buy here and hold with a stop below the lows and take market much higher.

Can't imagine any serious players are accumulating here. So, wouldn't make sense to move much higher prior to low break. Could be so many aggressive shorts that trade is over crowded so it doesn't happen today, PA looks like and acting like a lot of covering going on. But still holding a small short (1 MNQ)

EDIT: It is after 3:00 and 3:30 already.... some of my worst trades looking back are being short after 3:00 and particularly 3:30. So, actually don't like it quite as much given this information. Will just play it by ear.
 
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