ES Journal - 2021/2022

But what was the FA reason for it? We had banks collapsing because of the sub-prime fiasco. We do not have that today. We simply have supply-chain follow-through issues!


I have no clue. That's my point though. I am not smart enough or intelligent enough to review and analyze the economy and take trades and positions based on that. That's not me being sarcastic either I am 100% serious. What I can do is look at a chart and if there's enough selling going on to make a Weekly chart look like a 2008 chart and that hasn't happened in the last 14 years. That's a pretty big tell to me, to look down. For me it's that simple.
 
Look at how 2008 set up and how long it set up for, before we actually went down. Selling started in 2007,

From me----11/16/2007

All equity investments (muts) outside of the trading account were pulled at the close yesterday. I am 100 percent in cash and short the ES --Long Yen futures versus the USD as well:)
 
But what was the FA reason for it? We had banks collapsing because of the sub-prime fiasco. We do not have that today. We simply have supply-chain follow-through issues!


Dude I really hate stupid sayings, self help quotes and etc, so forgive me, but I truly mean this in the most literal sense. Don't trade what you want, trade what you see and the chart is telling you and than what you want will come to you.

Also, not blindly handing this quote out. I said it because if I am not mistaken I sometimes see you have the market direction correct, yet you either don't trade it or worst you have a position on in the exact opposite direction of what you're saying the market is doing and is likely to do in the future.
 
But what was the FA reason for it? We had banks collapsing because of the sub-prime fiasco. We do not have that today. We simply have supply-chain follow-through issues!
No, we've had too much free money circulating in the economy.

BTW the market ran up over 800% for the last 14 years and you're upset over measly 4% dip today? Geez. :rolleyes:
 
Can't we all just get along?

I agree with @Concinnity about the charts tell all you need to know. My mistake this week was I had such a good read last week in getting in on the low that I neglected to do a deep dive into my charts. Contrary to @Buy1Sell2, my weekly chart (as of close of last week) suggested a bearish reversal this week which I should have caught. Not to mention my daily and intraday charts all shifted to high-risk as of the close of Monday so I should have been out. Currently, I do agree with @Overnight that conditions are not anywhere near 2008 -- at least not yet -- and that made me push my trade a bit -- as I think conditions actually have improved since the June / July lows BUT I should have just trusted the chart.

In my case, this was definitely a case where I had all the tools, I just didn't use them.
 
US 10Y yield isn't smashing through June's high, will they or is something up? Who knows, if bond market isn't smashing through June's high, then yesterday could have been one giant squeeze of longs :)
 

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