Yeah, sorry, I meant support-level.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
Yeah, sorry, I meant support-level.
Either way, you are smoking the funny stuff, because this is all Fed-driven crap. Forget those technicals! We are doomed when Powell says "Heil to higher rates!"
At the moment there has been no real change to the weekly. That could change, but right now that is what I see. I do understand that longer term we are headed down, way down.
This is where we start to disagree some. I agree with your bearish case, but the technical's 100% fully support your case too. Pull up a weekly chart and go look at 08/2008 and now compare that to to the 02/2020 covid crash and than finally look at the current action on the weekly.
After doing that in good faith, can you honestly tell me technical's have not been supporting this macro down move all along? No other time in the last 14 years, has the weekly been this bearish.
The fundamentals do not support the bearish case of what was going on in 2008!
Well I think you took advantage of my good faith, did you actually go back and compare those three? You responded really fast.
Regardless if you're being sarcastic or not, that is my whole point. You don't really need the news. Look at how 2008 set up and how long it set up for, before we actually went down. Selling started in 2007, we had a rally, followed by most TA showing a change in trend, sold off mid 2008, followed by another rally (again not large enough to show a change in trend) and than finally a huge move down. Not exactly, but similar to today.
Let's look at the two options:
(1) If you say "we need the news and fundamentals to trade it bearish" Clearly we didn't because it gave us a full year to prepare for the dump.
(2) Or let's say your statement was sarcastic and you really meant the fundamentals didn't support it. Who cares? the weekly chart clearly showed larger players were selling with consistency and purpose. So, they either knew something or suspected something. Again was no rush showed their hand for literally an entire year.
Fast forward to today and same thing, they've been showing their hand for almost a year now. In both examples literally the chart was telling us we had a higher probability to go lower, there was no need to involve news or be in any rush.
From me----Sep 18, 2008
Here is the current monthly SP futures continuation chart. As you know, I have posted earlier versions of this chart several times prior and it is what governs my long term bearishness. I will not be getting long in equity investment full force for quite some time. I will however begin buying back into my mutuals now at the rate of 1 percent of the portfolio per month. Once the monthly bases and turns up, I will go back to a strong asset allocation model heavily weighted in equities. --But not now. In trading, I believe in all in, all out. In the non margined 80 percent of the portfolio, dollar cost averaging is the correct method in a down turn.
Here is the current monthly SP futures continuation chart. As you know, I have posted earlier versions of this chart several times prior and it is what governs my long term bearishness. I will not be getting long in equity investment full force for quite some time. I will however begin buying back into my mutuals now at the rate of 1 percent of the portfolio per month. Once the monthly bases and turns up, I will go back to a strong asset allocation model heavily weighted in equities. --But not now. In trading, I believe in all in, all out. In the non margined 80 percent of the portfolio, dollar cost averaging is the correct method in a down turn.
But what was the FA reason for it? We had banks collapsing because of the sub-prime fiasco. We do not have that today. We simply have supply-chain follow-through issues!