ES Journal - 2021/2022

[mervyn]

10.5 points on 6 contracts, sat on it for an hour.

 

[schizo]

I don't scale out or trail positions, and as far as bull vs bear phase, everyone trades different time frames and so far we were quite right being on the long side, signal on my frame is still bullish apart from today's reaction to the data, let's wait and see. Luck plays a big part at times.

Ya should have listened. Still not too late. We have 370 points to drop.

If my analysis is correct, we should retrace back down to the May low before the end of the month.

 

[formikatrading]

Just didn't do enough reward / risk analysis given where we were at close yesterday thru pre-market today.

You were really bullish 20 minutes prior to the release when I asked you today, though.

 

[MacBookProHo]

Still not too late. We have 370 points to drop.

370 points to drop still for the remainder of the day? So Specific.
I would have assumed the bulk of the drop already happened by 11'ish, and the rest of the day will hover around flat'ish from that point onward,

Let's see who will be Right, just for the heck of it, no trophies or bragging rights or points awarded,

 

[Master Pu]

Ya should have listened. Still not too late. We have 370 points to drop.

I only listen to myself

 

[SunTrader]

Another push down.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I don't scale out or trail positions, and as far as bull vs bear phase, everyone trades different time frames and so far we were quite right being on the long side, signal on my frame is still bullish apart from today's reaction to the data, let's wait and see. Luck plays a big part at times.

But like you said earlier yourself - it's not a profit until it's realized. The entry is only half the game. Arguably the most important one, but it's when you exit you get paid.

I don't know the depth of your method, though, but I can only imagine that you had some kind of scenario for how this trade would unfold. And surely today's action could not have been part of that scenario?

So, it seems like the trade at this point is a "hope" trade. You're hoping the market will turn around and make you whole as the original premise of the trade is most likely gone.

Luck is no doubt a factor, but it will only get you so far. Unless you're very lucky.

Regardless, I really enjoy your posts and commentary, so please don't take this the wrong way. Good luck.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Welp, uptrend broken, losses cut.

 

[schizo]

Long 3090.75

SL 3086

Think we might reverse here, at least in the short term.

 

[Master Pu]

My belief as a trader that when trading you only want to look for opportunities that potentially offer positively skewed return distribution, I wouldn’t be going long here based on my r:r model.

@Laissez Faire I also posted the above. As much as I’d like to, I know my win rate will likely stay low in the hunt for larger moves. This unavoidably means having to give up all of the unrealised gain at times. Today’s price action took me by surprise, shit happens. So luck may prevail here or not.