ES Journal - 2021/2022

formikatrading said:
While still operating under the bullish end of year thesis and still fine on my position (for now, LOL!), I definitely could have been more pro-active in the short-term based on conditions at close yesterday. @SunTrader mentioned the VIX (which I had observed as well) -- and I had some other indicators which were giving at least a caution yesterday. And I noticed a number of folks switching to long or buying into the bullish scenario. That combined with ST "stretched" conditions was something that probably should have led me to at least take some $ off the table.
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It's Ok bud, many have been caught with their pants down on this volatile down move. At least these don't happen all that often. Always a shite feeling to see unrealised gains vaporise but that is what this game is all about - win and lose ;)
 
SunTrader said:
Should put it, that this scenario is happening a lot more often, than in years past.
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Maybe more frequent.
But the phenomena happens already since the day when the financial markets started centuries ago. Markets are most of the time overbought or oversold in any timeframe you choose.
 
Cup & handle, abc-12 spotted on the one minute, long 100 tqqq

Decision time. Uptrend broken if we continue down from here:
 

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formikatrading said:
While still operating under the bullish end of year thesis and still fine on my position (for now, LOL!), I definitely could have been more pro-active in the short-term based on conditions at close yesterday. @SunTrader mentioned the VIX (which I had observed as well) -- and I had some other indicators which were giving at least a caution yesterday. And I noticed a number of folks switching to long or buying into the bullish scenario. That combined with ST "stretched" conditions was something that probably should have led me to at least take some $ off the table.
More...

You were really bullish 20 minutes prior to the release when I asked you today, though.

When I asked you this weekend what was the significance of this weekly bar, i.e, how is this any different than prior bear market rallies this year, and what conditions have changed that could support a rally from here - you replied that "This is the difference between 2D analysis and 4D analysis".

Maybe it's lost in translation since I'm based in Norway, but it could be interpreted as my analysis not being sophisticated enough, while yours was. And I was left in the dark with my basic analysis.

My basic 2D-thesis is that we're in a bear market and that the conditions that supported this decade long bull are no longer in effect. That's why I've posted multiple times that I was suspicious of this rally.

For you and others holding long: Why not trail a stop to at least secure something out of the trade? Too late now, of course, but if this were to be a bull week, we shouldn't have dipped much below Monday's LOD.
 
Laissez Faire said:
When I asked you this weekend what was the significance of this weekly bar, i.e, how is this any different than prior bear market rallies this year, and what conditions have changed that could support a rally from here - you replied that "This is the difference between 2D analysis and 4D analysis".
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Oh, I feel so vindicated. :D
 
Laissez Faire said:
You were really bullish 20 minutes prior to the release when I asked you today, though.

When I asked you this weekend what was the significance of this weekly bar, i.e, how is this any different than prior bear market rallies this year, and what conditions have changed that could support a rally from here - you replied that "This is the difference between 2D analysis and 4D analysis".

Maybe it's lost in translation since I'm based in Norway, but it could be interpreted as my analysis not being sophisticated enough, while yours was. And I was left in the dark with my basic analysis.

My basic 2D-thesis is that we're in a bear market and that the conditions that supported this decade long bull are no longer in effect. That's why I've posted multiple times that I was suspicious of this rally.

For you and others holding long: Why not trail a stop to at least secure something out of the trade? Too late now, of course, but if this were to be a bull week, we shouldn't have dipped much below Monday's LOD.
More...

I don't scale out or trail positions, and as far as bull vs bear phase, everyone trades different time frames and so far we were quite right being on the long side, signal on my frame is still bullish apart from today's reaction to the data, let's wait and see. Luck plays a big part at times.
 
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