I think YOU are making it difficult by speaking of formations. The formation on a TA level means dick, because it is the FA that will drive the formation. If the NFP is good or bad is not what makes the formation, but what makes the information. Not sure I am explaining myself as clear as I could.
ES Journal - 2021/2022
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
I think YOU are making it difficult by speaking of formations. The formation on a TA level means dick, because it is the FA that will drive the formation. If the NFP is good or bad is not what makes the formation, but what makes the information. Not sure I am explaining myself as clear as I could.
No, you're the one giving too much credence to FA. If the market decides to ignore those bad news and rally instead, it will. So what I'm saying is this: Do not pretend you know what will happen in advance. Just go with the flow. Ya ya I know, easier said than done.
Well, let's put it this way...Powell established a FA baseline, if you will, by talking about pain. And it rolled with it, and then disbelieved everything he said two weeks ago. Thus our 3-4% drop so far since then. I believe that was an over-reaction
Based on previous observations on jobs numbers, in this environment we are in, my call has not changed. We get a horrible jobs number we go up. We get a strong (or same as projection) jobs number we go down.
I don't doubt that assumption. However, do you REALLY believe Powell is an inflation hawk? Do you think he would have known that the market would tank following his off the cuff remark last Friday? I don't believe he's a hawk by any stretch of the imagination and he probably miscalculated when he made that comment.
And here's the reason why. Just about all Fed chairmen in the past, with the exception of Paul Volcker, were on friendly terms with the financial market. Powell They literally took their cues from the moves in the market. They didn't bother cutting the rate when the economy didn't fare well but they sure did whenever the market took a nosedive. On the other hand, they won't even bother raising the rate when the stock market is going through the roof but they're forced to raise it when people can't pay for gas (mostly out of political pressure and begrudgingly, ie. too small too late until it's too damn obvious). You will remember that I've been bitching about this for awhile.
That said, you can rest assured that Powell will not let the market simply slide into a deep correction. I'm pretty sure the 75 bp cut is over for now. At most, there will be two 50 bp cuts going forward and they will call it quits. More sooner than later, Powell will flip his earlier opinion. You can bet on it.
He simply doesn't CARE any longer what effect his comments have on the market, because last year they all got caught insider trading! Now they cannot do that anymore. So your 401K is fucked!
Well, it's not like that's a new revelation. They've been colluding with Wall Street for like ever. As I said, they base their policy decision by looking at the market rather than the economy at large. Everyone but you seem to think that's revelatory.
Well, it's not like that's a new revelation. They've been colluding with Wall Street for like ever. As I said, they base their policy decision by looking at the market rather than the economy at large. Everyone but you seem to think that's revelatory.
Will you stop?!? You just reinforced my point! The FED no longer gives a shit about the market! There is no more PPT, and there never will be again, because they cannot trade it!
And stop doing the
thingy. Do it often enough and your face will get stuck like that. That's what mom said, anyway. Hehe.
Except for one thing----The market is in a downtrend right now and nothing that happened today made an obvious change to that.
Tomorrow is going to either confirm that downtrend, or pivot it north. Wheeee!
I hate your hair, it seems bearish. Because it is bushy. Jimmy Page crap-ass.