ES Journal - 2021/2022

Buy1Sell2 said:
I do, however, recognize that you cannot print money, creating inflation, then raise rates, while shutting down energy, with no new viable system in place and expect to not have a depression.
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Bah. Time for a loon break. I love loons. We all must learn to love the loon. (When I had my vaca in Maine earlier this year in June, I heard a few while falling asleep. Dude, these birds will make you fall asleep so fast. It is SOOOO relaxing to hear while falling asleep on the Maine coast!)

 
Overnight said:
But isn't sentimental tone set by the fundamentals and the news? What I see now, in my third eye is a drift down into a range until the FOMC at end of September. There are going to be motions in the ocean on the PPI and CPI between then and now. How can technicals save us? I just don't see it.
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Technicals reflect fundamentals, news and sentiment. Sentiment is the most important factor. Sentiment is set by fear and greed. By far, fear and greed are what drive the market.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Technicals reflect fundamentals, news and sentiment. Sentiment is the most important factor. Sentiment is set by fear and greed. By far, fear and greed are what drive the market.
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On this we can agree...But I think it needs an adjunct...Technicals reflect fundamentals, but not sentiment.

Technicals are the result of the fundamentals. Remember...simple indicators like DTs and DBs cannot form without the fear and greed that cause those DB and DT to form.

If everyone is fearful that a DT is going to form at 4000 on the ES, then they will probably find a a way to make it happen. Self-fulfilling prophecy, as it were.

Now if the technicals like DTs form because the fear, greed whatever makes it so, a sentiment forms about that level, and just reinforces the technical level. So what really caused the level to form? The emotion, or the fundies?
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
By far, fear and greed are what drive the market.
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Trading is slightly more complicated than that....to make a rather definite, sweeping, broad statement.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
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If the Fear and Greed Index is higher today than yesterday....Bet Up.
If the Fear and Greed Index is lower today than yesterday....Bet Down.

Do That, and you will become an instant Millionaire in the market.
Good Luck with that Master plan,
 
MacBookProHo said:
Trading is slightly more complicated than that....to make a rather definite, sweeping, broad statement.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed


If the Fear and Greed Index is higher today than yesterday....Bet Up.
If the Fear and Greed Index is lower today than yesterday....Bet Down.

Do That, and you will become an instant Millionaire in the market.
Good Luck with that Master plan,
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So trading is as complicated as your CNN fear index, with the little tachometer dial thingy? That is as complex as your analysis goes? ROFFLE. Man, you need loons. Scroll up two posts and you will find them.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
You have corroborated my point.
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I didn't mean to, because I disagree with you on a very technical niggle in our discussion. But it is my bedtime, so we must continue later. Buggah!

About what drives what. Does sentiment drive technicals, does FA drive sentiment, which drives TA, what drives what, etc. Fun discussion, we'll come back to it! Niters!
 
I agree that sentiment is most important factor in trading. Who cares what your FA or TA determine if price keeps pushing in the opposite direction of your expectations. Analysis could be correct, but could be wrongly timed. Happens to all of us, hence ‘early’ entries and exits are common. Even pros can’t ‘read’/time/analyse sentiment correctly each and every time.
 
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