ES Journal - 2021/2022

Relentless said:
The above is why i stick to technicals - at least for short term trading. Much headache and wasted time avoided paying attention to fabricated news.

Charts never lie.
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So if your chart never lies, what does it tell you about tomorrow? It has a 50/50 chance of being correct, by the way, going into a print like this. If a chart never lies, there should be none of "Well, if it does this, then this, But if it does this, then that."
 
Overnight said:
So if your chart never lies, what does it tell you about tomorrow? It has a 50/50 chance of being correct, by the way, going into a print like this. If a chart never lies, there should be none of "Well, if it does this, then this, But if it does this, then that."
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Top has been carving itself out.
 
Overnight said:
So if your chart never lies, what does it tell you about tomorrow? It has a 50/50 chance of being correct, by the way, going into a print like this. If a chart never lies, there should be none of "Well, if it does this, then this, But if it does this, then that."
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If a 50 % win rate is the best you can do, you can still make good money as long as your R/R is at least 2:1. You can go short here (4160) with a 15 point stop targeting 4100 as a minimum. That's a 4:1 R/R. If you can consistently hit 4:1 winners you can make good money with a win rate as low as 40 %.

I don't think the odds are 50/50, though. But I can't know that as I don't have data to support that. Intraday, I have data which lets me gauge these probabilities. Usually, they're not 50/50. :)
 
Almost got your 60 points there, @Overnight. 3.75 points shy. :)

Still working this channel:

upload_2022-8-5_15-52-1.png


upload_2022-8-5_15-53-17.png
 
For today's RTH session, my expectation is that the market will try to trade back into yesterday's range. So, either a rejection at 4130/4136 or a full gap fill above 4150.

PS: I didn't yet check what the actual number was. Don't really want to know either.
 
Filled the gap from yesterday to the tick. Who said the market wasn't technical and/or unpredictable? :)

With that level filled the rest of the day is more uncertain, but my view is that we'll print an Outside Day today with at least a 65 print, but probably exceeding that.
 
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