All good charts LF!
I was following this blue channel, and saw it broke out decisively. That's the problem with channels, rarely do they offer opportunities over and over again. I tried a short around 4000, and was in profit for a while, but I am still holding, and prepared to scale in.
I used this chart in a different thread about gaps. I know you watch them like a hawk as well. Most of these here have filled, but there is clearly the one at 4250 that has yet to fill, and this would also allow for price to turn at some of the swing highs you point out.
But there are now multiple gaps lower down. Doesn't mean we have to fill them, or maybe we don't even fill them for a month, but after studying these gaps, I'd say 95% of them eventually fill, even if it means going hundreds of points the other way first.
I'm also putting in a bit of fundamental analysis, and it does seem like the market is screaming higher because they think the FED is done raising rates and will have to pivot, but what I'm reading is that in the past few days, some FED officials are trying to signal that they are prepared to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down. As the saying goes, don't fight the FED, and I think their only option now is to destroy assets prices. And although they say they want a soft landing, they will go into a recession, just change the name, but they can't let prices get out of control. So I think once the market understands this, we will for sure revisit the lows, and especially to fill in some of those gaps.
I was following this blue channel, and saw it broke out decisively. That's the problem with channels, rarely do they offer opportunities over and over again. I tried a short around 4000, and was in profit for a while, but I am still holding, and prepared to scale in.
I used this chart in a different thread about gaps. I know you watch them like a hawk as well. Most of these here have filled, but there is clearly the one at 4250 that has yet to fill, and this would also allow for price to turn at some of the swing highs you point out.
But there are now multiple gaps lower down. Doesn't mean we have to fill them, or maybe we don't even fill them for a month, but after studying these gaps, I'd say 95% of them eventually fill, even if it means going hundreds of points the other way first.
I'm also putting in a bit of fundamental analysis, and it does seem like the market is screaming higher because they think the FED is done raising rates and will have to pivot, but what I'm reading is that in the past few days, some FED officials are trying to signal that they are prepared to do whatever it takes to bring inflation down. As the saying goes, don't fight the FED, and I think their only option now is to destroy assets prices. And although they say they want a soft landing, they will go into a recession, just change the name, but they can't let prices get out of control. So I think once the market understands this, we will for sure revisit the lows, and especially to fill in some of those gaps.
