ES Journal - 2021/2022

GDP is negative two quarters in a row and we are not in recession, per jpg’s word, only count the participated population.

anyway, just tapped 1.75 points today and wasn’t in the mood to trade, attended stocks portfolio instead. every tech name is up, weekly macd are all looking to cross. I think the market will try to stabilize at 4088 and marching to 4223 by the end of summer.

Maybe it is time to add more money to carry positions to Christmas.

How ignorant the market is.
 
mervyn said:
How ignorant the market is.
More...

This market is amnesiac. It forgets everything by the next day.

WTF is Covid? Did you say inflation? What is that? And so what if Jerome Powell raised 0.75 BPS and the economy tanks as a result? Some people might starve, but that's okay. It's all part of history.
 
schizo said:
This market is amnesiac. It forgets everything by the next day.

WTF is Covid? Did you say inflation? What is that? And so what if Jerome Powell raised 0.75 BPS and the economy tanks as a result? Some people might starve, but that's okay. It's all part of history.
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I tend to agree. Nothing is actually better. Every interesting chart I come across on twitter is still showing huge weakness. The jobs numbers don't matter when you consider that labor participation is low. People just aren't looking for work. Considering wages, they are actually going downhill when adjusted for inflation. Sales are maybe up, but only because the prices have been shooting higher. If you raise your prices 10% and have 5% higher earnings, is this really a positive metric? And lets not forget how many companies announced layoffs or hiring freezes.

I hate arguing with the market since the price is one thing you have to respect, but this rally I'm not convinced is going to last.
 
NoahA said:
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I hate arguing with the market since the price is one thing you have to respect, but this rally I'm not convinced is going to last.
More...

The bull trend will continue when the Fed says it will. And that is when they signal they are pausing rate hikes. Or, if Putin goes away.
 
NoahA said:
I tend to agree. Nothing is actually better. Every interesting chart I come across on twitter is still showing huge weakness. The jobs numbers don't matter when you consider that labor participation is low. People just aren't looking for work. Considering wages, they are actually going downhill when adjusted for inflation. Sales are maybe up, but only because the prices have been shooting higher. If you raise your prices 10% and have 5% higher earnings, is this really a positive metric? And lets not forget how many companies announced layoffs or hiring freezes.

I hate arguing with the market since the price is one thing you have to respect, but this rally I'm not convinced is going to last.
More...

This seems to have relevance now. How many fund managers are contemplating what the F to do next?


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NoahA said:
I tend to agree. Nothing is actually better. Every interesting chart I come across on twitter is still showing huge weakness. The jobs numbers don't matter when you consider that labor participation is low. People just aren't looking for work. Considering wages, they are actually going downhill when adjusted for inflation. Sales are maybe up, but only because the prices have been shooting higher. If you raise your prices 10% and have 5% higher earnings, is this really a positive metric? And lets not forget how many companies announced layoffs or hiring freezes.

I hate arguing with the market since the price is one thing you have to respect, but this rally I'm not convinced is going to last.
More...

How about this:

- QE funneled money to the rich only, and generally not the people who needed it. This drove inflation across the world. Even if someone who was poor received some sort of covid relief money, they paid it to someone who was rich.

- Inflation continues to increase because the rich will pay whatever price is asked, and the QE helped them earn even more over covid.

- Raising interest rates stops poorer people spending, but could actually drive inflation further because the rich will now earn higher interest on their massive savings. The rich will continue to pay whatever price is in front of them driving inflation further. While the poor suffer.

- The poor start to suffer so much that the Fed and other central banks start QE again. This could drive further inflation, further rises in assets and rises in indices regardless of earnings. While the poor will continue to suffer. The only way out of the situation would be to raise taxes on the rich and introduce windfall taxes on hugely successful companies. However no one will do this.

If the poor start to revolt, there might just be a war somewhere that they end up being called to support with.
 
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